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Model Uncertainty, Learning, and the Gains from Coordination

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Author Info
Ghosh, Atish R
Masson, Paul R

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Abstract

This paper considers gains from international economic policy coordination when there is uncertainty concerning the functioning of the world economy, but also learning about the "true" model on the part of policymakers. The paper reports estimates of plausible alternative versions of a standard two-country model. Activist policy (either coordinated or uncoordinated) may produce large welfare losses in the absence of learning, if policymakers behave in the wrong model; hence, exogenous money targets and freely flexible exchange rates may be best. However, model learning (from observations on macroeconomic variables) causes coordinated policies to dominate activist uncoordinated policies or exogenous money targets. Copyright 1991 by American Economic Association.

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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 81 (1991)
Issue (Month): 3 (June)
Pages: 465-79
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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:81:y:1991:i:3:p:465-79

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  1. Beetsma, Roel & Debrun, Xavier & Klaassen, Franc, 2001. "Is Fiscal Policy Coordination in EMU Desirable?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3035, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Dean Corbae & Chris Neely & Paul Weller, 1998. "Endogenous realignments and the sustainability of a target," Working Papers 1994-009, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  3. Thomas Willett, 1999. "Developments in the Political Economy of Policy Coordination," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 221-253, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Bennett T. McCallum & Edward Nelson, 2000. "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," NBER Working Papers 5875, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Joseph Daniels & David VanHoose, 1998. "Two-Country Models of Monetary and Fiscal Policy: What Have We Learned? What More Can We Learn?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 265-284, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Paul Conway, 2000. "Monetary policy in an uncertain world," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 63, September. [Downloadable!]
  7. David Alan Aschauer, 1997. "Skiki vono ko shtuvalo? The Seignorage Loss from Monetary Stabilization in Ukraine," Macroeconomics 9712005, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  8. Bastiaan Verhoef, 2006. "Pricing-to-market, sectoral shocks and gains from monetary cooperation," DNB Working Papers 110, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  9. Yuong Ha, 2000. "Uncertainty about the length of the monetary policy transmission lag: implications for monetary policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2000/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand. [Downloadable!]
  10. Martin Ellison & Lucio Sarno & Jouko Vilmunen, 2006. "Caution or Activism? Monetary Policy Strategies in an Open Economy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 214, Society for Computational Economics. [Downloadable!]
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