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Caution or Activism? Monetary Policy Strategies in an Open Economy

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  • Martin Ellison

    (University of Warwick)

  • Lucio Sarno

    (Warwick Business School)

  • Jouko Vilmunen

    (Bank of Finland)

Abstract

We examine optimal policy in an open-economy model with uncertainty and learning, where monetary policy actions affect the economy through the real exchange rate channel. Our results show that the degree of caution or activism in optimal policy depends on whether central banks are in coordinated or uncoordinated equilibrium. If central banks coordinate their policy actions then activism is optimal. In contrast, if there is no coordination, caution prevails. In the latter case caution is optimal because it helps central banks to avoid exposing themselves to manipulative actions by other central banks

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File URL: http://repec.org/mmf2006/up.17391.1141984088.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Money Macro and Finance Research Group in its series Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 with number 18.

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Date of creation: 02 Feb 2007
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Handle: RePEc:mmf:mmfc06:18

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Keywords: learning; monetary policy; open economy;

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  1. Ghosh, Atish R & Masson, Paul R, 1991. "Model Uncertainty, Learning, and the Gains from Coordination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(3), pages 465-79, June.
  2. Bertocchi, Graziella & Spagat, Michael, 1993. "Learning, experimentation, and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 169-183, August.
  3. Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Learning by doing and the value of optimal experimentation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 501-534, April.
  4. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rockett, Katharine E, 1988. "International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination When Policymakers Do Not Agree on the True Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 318-40, June.
  5. Volker Wieland, 1999. "Monetary policy, parameter uncertainty and optimal learning," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1999-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. "Price-level Targeting versus Inflation Targeting: A Free Lunch?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1510, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  7. Basar, Tamer & Salmon, Mark, 1987. "Credibility and the Value of Information Transmission in a Model of Monetary Policy and Inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 289, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  8. Alan S. Blinder, 1999. "Central Banking in Theory and Practice," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262522608, December.
  9. Carl E. Walsh, 2003. "Monetary Theory and Policy, 2nd Edition," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 2, volume 1, number 0262232316, December.
  10. Kiefer, Nicholas M & Nyarko, Yaw, 1989. "Optimal Control of an Unknown Linear Process with Learning," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(3), pages 571-86, August.
  11. Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F, 1994. "Inflation Variability and Gradualist Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(4), pages 721-38, October.
  12. Ellison, Martin & Vilmunen, Jouko, 2005. "A simple approach to identifying the incentives for policy experimentation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 167-172, February.
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Cited by:
  1. Bigio, Saki, 2009. "Learning under Fear of Floating," Working Papers 2009-004, Banco Central de Reserva del PerĂș.
  2. Philip Arestis & Alexander Mihailov, 2011. "Classifying Monetary Economics: Fields And Methods From Past To Future," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 769-800, 09.
  3. Eric Schaling & James Bullard, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Determinacy, and Learnability in the Open Economy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 362, Society for Computational Economics.
  4. James B. Bullard & Eric Schaling, 2006. "Monetary policy, determinacy, and learnability in a two-block world economy," Working Papers 2006-038, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

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