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German unification and the demand for German M3

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Stefan Gerlach

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Abstract

This paper estimates a demand equation for German M3 over the period 1971:1-1989:4, and studies its ability to predict all-German M3 during 1990:l-1992:4 and (a measure of) western German M3 during 1990:l-1994:l. Although the out-of-sample prediction errors appear serially correlated, the equation passes stability tests for the western German data until 1993:4, but rejects in 1994:1. The model fails stability tests for the all-German data, largely because the jump in the money stock at unification is larger than that in nominal GDP. A slight modification of the model estimated using data for the period up to 1990:4 predicts all- German M3 very well in the period 1991:l-1992:4.

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Paper provided by Bank for International Settlements in its series BIS Working Papers with number 21.

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Length: 28 pages
Date of creation: Sep 1994
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Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:21

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  1. Rose, Andrew K, 1985. "An Alternative Approach to the American Demand for Money," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(4), pages 439-55, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
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  3. James MacKinnon, 1990. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series 90-4, Department of Economics, UC San Diego. [Downloadable!]
  4. Timothy D. Lane & Paul R. Masson & Marcel Cassard, 1994. "ERM Money Supplies and the Transition to EMU," IMF Working Papers 94/1, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Kremers, Jeroen J M & Ericsson, Neil R & Dolado, Juan J, 1992. "The Power of Cointegration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 325-48, August.
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Ivo Arnold, 2003. "A Regional Analysis of German Money Demand Around Reunification with Implications for EMU," Empirica, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 63-80, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Frank Browne & Gabriel Fagan & Jerome Henry, 2005. "Money Demand in EU Countries: A Survey," Macroeconomics 0503004, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Renato Filosa, 1995. "Money demand stability and currency substitution in six European countries (1980-1992)," BIS Working Papers 30, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  4. Norbert Funke, 1997. "Predicting recessions: Some evidence for Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 90-102, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Svensson, Lars, 1999. "Monetary Policy Issues for the Eurosystem," Seminar Papers 667, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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