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Predicting recessions: Some evidence for Germany

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  • Norbert Funke
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/BF02707678
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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Springer in its journal Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv.

    Volume (Year): 133 (1997)
    Issue (Month): 1 (March)
    Pages: 90-102

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    Handle: RePEc:spr:weltar:v:133:y:1997:i:1:p:90-102

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    Keywords: E30; E32; E37; E44;

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    References

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    1. Frank Browne & Paolo Manasse, 1989. "The Information Content of the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Theory and Practice," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 69, OECD Publishing.
    2. Duguay, Pierre, 1994. "Empirical evidence on the strength of the monetary transmission mechanism in Canada: An aggregate approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 39-61, February.
    3. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1998. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Its Role in Monetary Policy for The European Central Bank," NBER Working Papers 5279, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. E. P. Davis & S. G. B. Henry, 1994. "The Use of Financial Spreads as Indicator Variables: Evidence for the United Kingdom and Germany," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(3), pages 517-525, September.
    5. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    6. Stefan Gerlach, 1994. "German unification and the demand for German M3," BIS Working Papers 21, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Zuliu Hu, 1993. "The Yield Curve and Real Activity," IMF Working Papers 93/19, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:
    1. Ahrens, R., 2002. "Predicting recessions with interest rate spreads: a multicountry regime-switching analysis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 519-537, August.
    2. Ahrens, Ralf, 1999. "Predicting recessions with interest rate spreads: A multicountry regime-switching analysis," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/15, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    3. Ivanova, Detelina & Lahiri, Kajal & Seitz, Franz, 2000. "Interest rate spreads as predictors of German inflation and business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 39-58.
    4. Smets, Frank & Tsatsaronis, Kostas, 1997. "Why Does the Yield Curve Predict Economic Activity? Dissecting the Evidence for Germany and the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 1758, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Benner, Joachim & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2005. "Was leisten Stimmungsindikatoren für die Prognose des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts in Deutschland? : Eine Echtzeit-Analyse," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 3725, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    6. Boss, Alfred & Döpke, Jörg & Fischer, Malte & Langfeldt, Enno & Lapp, Susanne & Schatz, Klaus-Werner, 1997. "Aufschwung in Deutschland gewinnt an Breite," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy 1716, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    7. Döpke, Jörg, 1998. "Leading indicators for Euroland's business cycle," Kiel Working Papers 886, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    8. Hüfner, Felix P. & Schröder, Michael, 2001. "Unternehmens- versus Analystenbefragungen: Zum Prognosegehalt von ifo-Geschäftserwartungen und ZEW-Konjunkturerwartungen," ZEW Discussion Papers 01-04, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    9. Pons Novell, J., 2002. "Ciclo de la economía española y contenido informativo de los tipos de interés," Estudios de Economía Aplicada, Estudios de Economía Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 583-598, Diciembre.
    10. Joachim Benner & Carsten-Patrick Meier, 2004. "Prognosegüte alternativer Frühindikatoren für die Konjunktur in Deutschland," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 224(6), pages 639-652, November.

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