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Prognoseleistung von Frühindikatoren : Die Bedeutung von Frühindikatoren für Konjunkturprognosen - Eine Analyse für Deutschland

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  • Hinze, Jörg
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    Abstract

    Das Papier untersucht die Rolle von Frühindikatoren bei der Erstellung von Konjunkturprognosen. Gegenstand der Analyse sind die Fragen: Welche Kriterien sollten Frühindikatoren generell erfüllen bzw. was sollten Frühindikatoren leisten? Inwieweit erfüllen die gängigen Indikatoren diese Anforderungen? Wie ist die Prognosegüte der verschiedenen Frühindikatoren zu beurteilen? Die theoretischen Überlegungen und ökonometrischen Untersuchungen kommen zu dem Ergebnis, daß die gängigen Frühindikatoren die in sie gesetzten Erwartungen nur eingeschränkt erfüllen können. Der Verlauf einzelner Frühindikatoren läßt keine eindeutigen Schlußfolgerungen auf die reale Wirtschaftsentwicklung zu und der Vorlauf der Frühindikatoren vor der realen Entwicklung beträgt bestenfalls einige Monate. Für die Erstellung von Konjunkturprognosen, die in der Regel einen Zeitraum von mehr als einem Jahr bis zu zwei Jahren umfassen, bedeutet das, dass Frühindikatoren allenfalls einen kleinen Ausschnitt abdecken können. Sie sind vor allem wertvoll für die Diagnose am ?aktuellen Rand? und für Kurzfristprognosen. Prognosen für die Zeit darüber hinaus müssen sich nach wie vor vor allem auf die Analyse der Rahmenbedingungen stützen. --

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA) in its series HWWA Discussion Papers with number 236.

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    Date of creation: 2003
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwadp:26253

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    Keywords: Konjunktur; Wirtschaftspolitik;

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    References

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    1. Langfeldt, Enno, 1994. "Die Zinsstruktur als Frühindikator für Konjunktur und Preisentwicklung in Deutschland," Kiel Working Papers 615, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    2. G. Goldrian & J.D. Lindbauer & G. Nerb & B. Ulrich, 2001. "Evaluation and development of confidence indicators based on harmonised business and consumer surveys (Study contracted to IFO, Munich)," European Economy - Economic Papers 151, Directorate General Economic and Monetary Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    3. Norbert Funke, 1997. "Predicting recessions: Some evidence for Germany," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 90-102, March.
    4. Ulrich Fritsche & Sabine Stephan, 2000. "Leading Indicators of German Business Cycles: An Assessment of Properties," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 207, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    5. Diebold & Rudebusch, . "Measuring Business Cycle: A Modern Perspective," Home Pages _061, University of Pennsylvania.
    6. Ulrich Fritsche, 1999. "Vorlaufeigenschaften von Ifo-Indikatoren für Westdeutschland," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 179, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
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    Cited by:
    1. Konstantin Arkadievich Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs & Stefan Kooths, 2008. "A Dynamic Panel Data Approach to the Forecasting of the GDP of German L�nder," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 195-207.
    2. Katja Rietzler & Sabine Stephan, 2012. "Monthly recession predictions in real time: A density forecast approach for German industrial production," IMK Working Paper 94-2012, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

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