Leading Indicators of German Business Cycles: An Assessment of Properties
AbstractA reliable leading indicator should possess the following properties: (1) The movements in the indicator series should resemble those in the business cycle reference series. (2) The relation between the reference series and the indicator should be statistically significant and stable over time. (3) The inclusion of the indicator in out-of-sample forecasting procedures should improve the predictive power. Our analysis deals with tests for these requirements applied to German data. We used frequency domain analysis, different Granger-causality tests and out-of sample forecasts. Only few indicators passed all tests. Their inclusion into VAR-based forecasts improves the forecast in the very short run.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0004005.
Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 11 May 2000
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Note: Type of Document - Acrobat PDF; pages: 32; figures: included
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Business Cycle; Germany; Indicators;
Other versions of this item:
- Ulrich Fritsche & Sabine Stephan, 2002. "Leading Indicators of German Business Cycles - An Assessment of Properties," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 222(3), pages 289-315.
- Ulrich Fritsche & Sabine Stephan, 2000. "Leading Indicators of German Business Cycles: An Assessment of Properties," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 207, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General
- L70 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2001-02-14 (All new papers)
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