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Das ifo Geschäftsklima als Indikator für die Prognose des Bruttoinlandsprodukts

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  • Erich Langmantel
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    Abstract

    Das ifo Geschäftsklima gehört zu den bekanntesten deutschen Konjunkturindikatoren. In dem Beitrag wird gezeigt, daß sich mit seinen beiden Komponenten, Geschäftslage und Geschäftserwartungen, ein Prognoseansatz konstruieren läßt, der eine Vorausschätzung des realen Bruttoinlandsproduktes für bis zu vier Quartale erlaubt. Der Ansatz macht zwar eine detaillierte Konjunkturanalyse nicht überflüssig, weil er die Frage nach dem Warum des Konjunkturverlaufs nicht beantwortet, er kann aber einen wichtigen Beitrag zur Erstellung gesamtwirtschaftlicher Prognosen leisten.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

    Volume (Year): 52 (1999)
    Issue (Month): 16-17 (October)
    Pages: 16-21

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    Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:52:y:1999:i:16-17:p:16-21

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    Keywords: Deutschland; Geschäftsklima; Konjunktur; Konjunkturindikator; Sozialprodukt;

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    Cited by:
    1. Joachim Gürtler & Erich Langmantel & Arno Städtler, 2001. "Investitionsprognosen der Leasinggesellschaften mit hoher Treffsicherheit - Ein neuer Indikator für die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Ausrüstungsinvestitionen," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(10), pages 20-24, October.
    2. Benner, Joachim & Meier, Carsten-Patrick, 2005. "Was leisten Stimmungsindikatoren für die Prognose des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts in Deutschland? : Eine Echtzeit-Analyse," Open Access Publications from Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW) 3725, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    3. Joachim Gürtler & Arno Städtler, 2002. "Talfahrt der Ausrüstungsinvestitionen gebremst - erste Lichtblicke im Geschäftsklima der Leasingbranche," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 55(04), pages 34-36, 02.
    4. Beate Schirwitz & Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil II: Die Zyklendatierung," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(14), pages 24-31, 07.
    5. Ulrich Fritsche & Sabine Stephan, 2000. "Leading Indicators of German Business Cycles: An Assessment of Properties," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 207, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    6. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2005. "On the Forecasting Properties of the Alternative Leading Indicators for the German GDP: Recent Evidence," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 522, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Klaus Abberger & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2006. "Einige Prognoseeigenschaften des ifo Geschäftsklimas - Ein Überblick über die neuere wissenschaftliche Literatur," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(22), pages 19-26, November.
    8. Joachim Gürtler & Arno Städtler, 2001. "Auch Leasing ist nicht immun gegen die Konjunkturschwäche - Investitionsindikator gibt jedoch Anlass zu vorsichtigem Optimismus," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(16), pages 22-24, October.
    9. Konstantin Arkadievich Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs & Stefan Kooths, 2008. "A Dynamic Panel Data Approach to the Forecasting of the GDP of German L�nder," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 195-207.
    10. Anna Scharschmidt & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2011. "Sektorale Prognosen im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 64(22), pages 27-35, November.
    11. Ulrich Fritsche & Felix Marklein, 2001. "Leading Indicators of Euroland Business Cycles," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 238, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    12. Jan Jacobs & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2004. "Do Ifo Indicators Help Explain Revisions in German Industrial Production?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1205, CESifo Group Munich.
    13. Joachim Gürtler & Arno Städtler, 2001. "Investitionsschwäche bremst Wachstum der Leasingbranche - Geschäftsklima auf Tiefststand," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 54(23), pages 41-43, December.
    14. Beate Schirwitz & Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil I: Die Datenlage," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(13), pages 18-24, 07.
    15. Michael Kloß & Robert Lehmann, 2013. "Ärzte, Architekten, Autohändler – Wer treibt das Wachstum im Dienstleistungssektor?," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 20(03), pages 26-29, 06.

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