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Share Prices and Investment

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Andersen

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Robert Subbaraman

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

In this paper we examine two related propositions: the efficiency of pricing of Australian shares and the influences of share prices on business investment. In line with similar studies overseas, we find that the Australian share market may deviate from efficient pricing over short time horizons but that there is little evidence of inefficiency over longer time horizons. To investigate the influence of share prices on investment decisions we use a simple model of real share prices to identify estimates of the ‘fundamental’ and ‘speculative’ components of share prices. As expected, the estimated fundamental component of real share prices is found to have a stronger relationship with investment than the aggregate real share price series. Despite some evidence of share price inefficiences, the speculative component of real share prices is insignificant in the same investment equations, providing evidence that speculative movements in share prices do not have a significant effect on business investment. There is evidence, however, that these speculative share price movements influence the composition of corporate financing. In particular, the timing of equity raisings appears to be influenced by both components of share prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Andersen & Robert Subbaraman, 1996. "Share Prices and Investment," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9610, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp9610
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. K. Chaudhuri & S. Smiles, 2004. "Stock market and aggregate economic activity: evidence from Australia," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(2), pages 121-129.
    2. Agiakloglou, Christos & Gkouvakis, Michail, 2015. "Causal interrelations among market fundamentals: Evidence from the European Telecommunications sector," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 150-159.
    3. Mansur, Alfan & Liu, Yichang & Zaman, Kazi Arif Uz, 2015. "Portfolio Shocks and the Dynamics of the Real Economy of Australia (1980-2014): A Structural Vector Autoregressive Model Approach," MPRA Paper 93992, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 17 May 2015.
    4. Imran Hussain Shah & Ahmad Hassan Ahmad, 2017. "How important is the financial sector to price indices in an inflation targeting regime? An empirical analysis of the UK and the US," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 1063-1082, May.
    5. Alejandro Justiniano, 2004. "Sources and Propagation Mechanims of Foreign Disturbances in Small Open Economies: A Dynamic Factor Analysis," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 148, Econometric Society.
    6. Andriansyah, Andriansyah, 2017. "The Real Effect of Primary and Secondary Equity Markets on Firm Performance: Evidence from Indonesia," MPRA Paper 116696, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. repec:eco:journ2:2017-04-34 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Tuomas A. Peltonen & Ricardo M. Sousa & Isabel S. Vansteenkiste, 2011. "Fundamentals, Financial Factors, and the Dynamics of Investment in Emerging Markets," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(0), pages 88-105, May.
    9. Tuomas A. Peltonen & Ricardo M. Sousa & Isabel S. Vansteenkiste, 2009. "Asset prices, Credit and Investment in Emerging Markets," NIPE Working Papers 18/2009, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    10. Branston, Christopher B. & Groenewold, Nicolaas, 2004. "Investment and share prices: fundamental versus speculative components," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 199-226, August.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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