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Optimal Monetary Policy under Uncertainty in DSGE Models: A Markov Jump-Linear-Quadratic Approach

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Lars E.O. Svensson
Noah Williams

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Abstract

We study the design of optimal monetary policy under uncertainty in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. We use a Markov jump-linear-quadratic (MJLQ) approach to study policy design, approximating the uncertainty by different discrete modes in a Markov chain, and by taking mode-dependent linear-quadratic approximations of the underlying model. This allows us to apply a powerful methodology with convenient solution algorithms that we have developed. We apply our methods to a benchmark New Keynesian model, analyzing how policy is affected by uncertainty, and how learning and active experimentation affect policy and losses.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13892.

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Date of creation: Mar 2008
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13892

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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  1. Timothy Cogley & Riccardo Colacito & Thomas J. Sargent, 2007. "Benefits from U.S. Monetary Policy Experimentation in the Days of Samuelson and Solow and Lucas," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 67-99, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Learning by doing and the value of optimal experimentation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 501-534, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
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  4. Fabrizio Zampolli & Andrew Blake, 2005. "Time Consistent Policy in Markov Switching Models," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 2, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Kiefer, Nicholas M., 1989. "A value function arising in the economics of information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 201-223, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Marcet, A. & Marimon, R., 1998. "Recursive Contracts," Economics Working Papers eco98/37, European University Institute.
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  7. Lars E.O. Svensson & Noah M. Williams, 2007. "Bayesian and Adaptive Optimal Policy under Model Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 13414, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Beck, Gunter W. & Wieland, Volker, 2002. "Learning and control in a changing economic environment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1359-1377, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Svensson, Lars E O & Williams, Noah, 2007. "Monetary Policy with Model Uncertainty: Distribution Forecast Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 6331, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Eijffinger, Sylvester C W & Schaling, Eric & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2006. "Learning About the Term Structure and Optimal Rules for Inflation Targeting," CEPR Discussion Papers 5896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. repec:bep:macadv:v:6:y:2006:i:1:p:1288-1288 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Linde, Jesper, 2005. "Estimating New-Keynesian Phillips curves: A full information maximum likelihood approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1135-1149, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Ellison, Martin & Valla, Natacha, 2001. "Learning, uncertainty and central bank activism in an economy with strategic interactions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 153-171, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. do Val, Joao B. R. & Basar, Tamer, 1999. "Receding horizon control of jump linear systems and a macroeconomic policy problem1," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(8), pages 1099-1131, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Ellison, Martin, 2006. "The learning cost of interest rate reversals," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 1895-1907, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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