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Monetary Policy with Uncertain Parameters

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Soderstrom, Ulf

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Abstract

This paper shows that--in contrast to the received wisdom--uncertainty about the parameters in a dynamic macroeconomic model may lead to more aggressive monetary policy. In particular, when there is uncertainty about the persistence of inflation, it may be optimal for the central bank to respond to shocks more aggressively in order to reduce uncertainty about the future development of inflation. Uncertainty about other parameters, on the other hand, dampens the policy response. Copyright 2002 by The editors of the Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

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Article provided by Blackwell Publishing in its journal Scandinavian Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 104 (2002)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 125-45
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Handle: RePEc:bla:scandj:v:104:y:2002:i:1:p:125-45

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Basar, T & Salmon, Mark, 1989. "Credibility and the Value of Information Transmission in a Model of Monetary Policy and Inflation," CEPR Discussion Papers 338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1998. "Policy rules and targets: framing the central banker's problem," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jun, pages 1-14. [Downloadable!]
  3. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1994. "Optimal monetary policy and the sacrifice ratio," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 43-84. [Downloadable!]
  4. William Poole, 1998. "A policymaker confronts uncertainty," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 3-8. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Inflation zone targeting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1351-1387, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Stanley Fischer, 1996. "Why are central banks pursuing long-run price stability?," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 7-34. [Downloadable!]
  7. Geoffrey Shuetrim & Christopher Thompson, 1999. "The Implications of Uncertainty for Monetary Policy," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-10, Reserve Bank of Australia. [Downloadable!]
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  8. Laurence Ball, 1997. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Charles Goodhart, 1998. "Central Bankers and Uncertainty," FMG Special Papers sp106, Financial Markets Group. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Brian Sack, 1998. "Does the Fed act gradually? a VAR analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  11. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
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  12. Svensson, L-E-O, 1997. "Inflation Targeting : Some Extensions," Papers 625, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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  13. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Craine, Roger, 1979. "Optimal monetary policy with uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 59-83, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Christina D. Romer, 1996. "Inflation and the Growth Rate of Output," NBER Working Papers 5575, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Arturo Estrella & Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 2002. "Dynamic Inconsistencies: Counterfactual Implications of a Class of Rational-Expectations Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1013-1028, September. [Downloadable!]
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  17. Balvers, Ronald J & Cosimano, Thomas F, 1994. "Inflation Variability and Gradualist Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(4), pages 721-38, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  18. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Alexei Onatski & James H. Stock, 1999. "Robust monetary policy under model uncertainty in a small model of the U.S. economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
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  20. Bertocchi, Graziella & Spagat, Michael, 1993. "Learning, experimentation, and monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 169-183, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  21. Volker Wieland, 1998. "Monetary policy and uncertainty about the natural unemployment rate," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  22. Holly,Sean & Hughes Hallet,Andrew, 1989. "Optimal Control, Expectations and Uncertainty," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521264440, February.
  23. Srour, Gabriel, 1999. "Inflation Targeting under Uncertainty," Technical Reports 85, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  24. Ellingsen, Tore & Söderström, Ulf, 1998. "Monetary Policy and Market Interest Rates," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 242, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 08 Mar 1999. [Downloadable!]
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  25. Arturo Estrella & Frederic Mishkin, 1998. "Rethinking the role of NAIRU in monetary policy: implications of model formulation and uncertainty," Research Paper 9806, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  26. Basar, Tamer & Salmon, Mark, 1990. "Credibility and the value of information transmission in a model of monetary policy and inflation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 97-116, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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