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Relevancia de los datos en tiempo real en la estimación de la regla de Taylor para Colombia

Author

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  • Gloria Lucía Bernal Nisperuza
  • Johanna Táutiva Pradere

Abstract

Los datos de variables macroeconómicas usados por los agentes y hacedores de política para la toma de decisiones y aquellos usados por los investigadores para la evaluación de dichas decisiones podrían no ser comparables, pues estos últimos son revisados y actualizados continuamente por las entidades estadísticas. Este trabajo compara las predicciones de una regla de Taylor para Colombia que serían obtenidas utilizando datos en tiempo real (DTR) y utilizando datos revisados del PIB. Para esto, se construyó una base de datos en tiempo real (BDTR) del periodo comprendido entre el trimestre II-2003 y el trimestre I-2008 de tal manera que se puedan estudiar las diferencias debidas a las actualizaciones en el corto plazo. Los resultados muestran que si dicha regla se estima con la información actualizada, se observa que el Banco de la República aparecería reaccionando poco" a la tasa de inflación (con un coeficiente menor que uno), mientras que con la información en tiempo real, dicho coeficiente es mayor que uno. Finalmente se sugiere que la especificación, estimación, pronóstico y recomendación de una regla de política monetaria, podría cambiar y mejorar significativamente si se usa información en tiempo real"

Suggested Citation

  • Gloria Lucía Bernal Nisperuza & Johanna Táutiva Pradere, 2008. "Relevancia de los datos en tiempo real en la estimación de la regla de Taylor para Colombia," Documentos de Economía 5421, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000108:005421
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Andrés Felipe Giraldo Palomino, 2008. "Aversión a la inflación y regla de Taylor en Colombia 1994-2005," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, December.
    2. Lina Marcela Cardona Sosa, 2004. "¿Una Regla de Política Estandar?," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, April.
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    4. Martha López P., 2004. "Efficient policy rule for inflation targeting in Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 22(45), pages 80-115, June.
    5. Juan Manuel Julio R. & Javier Gómez P., 1998. "Output Gap Estimation, Estimation Uncertainty and its Effect on Policy Rules," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 17(34), pages 89-117, December.
    6. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, March.
    7. Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 907-931, November.
    8. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May.
    9. Croushore, Dean, 2006. "Forecasting with Real-Time Macroeconomic Data," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 17, pages 961-982, Elsevier.
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    Cited by:

    1. Andrés Felipe Giraldo & Martha Misas Arango & Edgar Villa Pérez, 2011. "Reconstructing the recent monetary policy history of Colombia from 1990 to 2010," Vniversitas Económica 8860, Universidad Javeriana - Bogotá.
    2. Andrés Felipe Giraldo Palomino, 2008. "Aversión a la inflación y regla de Taylor en Colombia 1994-2005," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, December.
    3. Andrés Giraldo & Martha Misas & Edgar Villa, 2012. "Reconstructing Colombia‘s Recent History of Monetary Policy from 1990 to 2010," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 30(67), pages 56-103, July.

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