Relevancia de los datos en tiempo real en la estimación de la regla de Taylor para Colombia
Abstract
Los datos de variables macroeconómicas usados por los agentes y hacedores de política para la toma de decisiones y aquellos usados por los investigadores para la evaluación de dichas decisiones podrían no ser comparables, pues estos últimos son revisados y actualizados continuamente por las entidades estadísticas. Este trabajo compara las predicciones de una regla de Taylor para Colombia que serían obtenidas utilizando datos en tiempo real (DTR) y utilizando datos revisados del PIB. Para esto, se construyó una base de datos en tiempo real (BDTR) del periodo comprendido entre el trimestre II-2003 y el trimestre I-2008 de tal manera que se puedan estudiar las diferencias debidas a las actualizaciones en el corto plazo. Los resultados muestran que si dicha regla se estima con la información actualizada, se observa que el Banco de la República aparecería reaccionando “poco” a la tasa de inflación (con un coeficiente menor que uno), mientras que con la información en tiempo real, dicho coeficiente es mayor que uno. Finalmente se sugiere que la especificación, estimación, pronóstico y recomendación de una regla de política monetaria, podría cambiar y mejorar significativamente si se usa información en tiempo realDownload Info
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.Bibliographic Info
Paper provided by UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA - BOGOTÁ in its series DOCUMENTOS DE ECONOMÍA with number 005421.Length: 41
Date of creation: 16 Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000108:005421
Contact details of provider:
Related research
Keywords:This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-04-25 (All new papers)
References
References listed on IDEASPlease report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1996.
"Do measures of monetary policy in a VAR make sense?,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
96-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 907-31, November.
- Rudebusch, G.D., 1996. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense?," Papers 269, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
- Andrés Felipe Giraldo Palomino, 2008.
"Aversión a la inflación y regla de Taylor en Colombia 1994-2005,"
REVISTA CUADERNOS DE ECONOMÍA,
UN - RCE - CID.
- Andrés Felipe Giraldo palomino, 2007. "Aversión a la inflación y regla de Taylor en Colombia 1994-2005," DOCUMENTOS DE ECONOMÃA 003947, UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA - BOGOTÁ.
- Elliott, Graham, 2002. "Comments on 'Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 533-539, December.
- Croushore, Dean, 2006. "Forecasting with Real-Time Macroeconomic Data," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
- Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1998. "Do Measures of Monetary Policy in a VAR Make Sense? A Reply," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 943-48, November.
- Juan Manuel Julio & Javier Gómez, .
"Output Gap Estimation, Estimation Uncertainty and its Effect on Policy Rules,"
Borradores de Economia
125, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- Juan Manuel Julio & Javier Gómez, 1998. "Output Gap Estimation, Estimation Uncertainty And Its Effect On Policy Rules," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
- Juan Manuel Julio & Javier Gómez, 1999. "Outpout Gap Estimation, Estimation Uncertainty And Its Effect On Policy Rules," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003309, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
- Juan Manuel Julio Román, 2006.
"The Monetary Policy Rule During The Transition Toa Stable Lvel Of Inflation: The Case Of Colombia,"
BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA
003613, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
- Juan Manuel Julio Román, . "The Monetary Policy Rule During The Transition To A Stable Level Of Inflation: The Case Of Colombia," Borradores de Economia 404, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.Cited by:
- Andrés Felipe Giraldo & Martha Misas Arango & Edgar Villa Pérez, 2011. "Reconstructing the recent monetary policy history of Colombia from 1990 to 2010," VNIVERSITAS ECONÃMICA 008860, UNIVERSIDAD JAVERIANA - BOGOTÁ.
Lists
This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000108:005421For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jorge AlbertoRestrepo).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

