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¿Está determinado el nivel de precios por las expectativas de dinero y producto en Colombia?

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Author Info

  • Martha Misas A.

    ()

  • Carlos Esteban Posada P

    ()

  • Diego Mauricio Vásquez E

    ()

Abstract

La corriente tradicional de investigación conocida como la teoríacuantitativa del dinero" ha sostenido que la cantidad de éste es elprincipal factor determinante del nivel de precios. Pero no siempre hahabido un consenso al respecto. Por ejemplo, hay quienes interpretanla ejecución de la estrategia denominada "inflación objetivo" comosíntoma de una supuesta irrelevancia de la cantidad de dinero para ladeterminación del nivel de precios o de su tasa de aumento, la inflación.El objetivo del presente trabajo es someter a prueba la hipótesiscuantitativa para el caso colombiano pero en el siguiente sentidoespecífico: lo que determina el nivel de precios es el juicio de los agenteseconómicos sobre la magnitud y la evolución de los componentes permanentes del dinero nominal y del producto real, entendidos éstos como los valores actuales esperados de sustrayectorias futuras, y que los factores juzgados como transitorios carecen de importanciapara la determinación de dicho nivel.La verificación de tal hipótesis se realiza mediante un procedimiento de optimización nolineal, que considera la aplicación del filtro de Kalman y la estimación por máximaverosimilitud de los parámetros de una representación estado-espacio. Dicharepresentación se deriva de un modelo macroeconómico de equilibrio generalintertemporal con expectativas racionales. Este trabajo se lleva a cabo con datos anualespara el período 1954-2000."

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE in its journal ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA.

Volume (Year): (2003)
Issue (Month): ()
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Handle: RePEc:col:000107:005295

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Keywords: Teoría cuantitativa del dinero; representación estado-espacio; filtro deKalman.;

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  1. Karen Cabos & Nikolaus A. Siegfried, 2001. "Controlling Inflation in Euroland," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20102, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  2. Martha Misas A. & Hugo Oliveros & José Dario Uribe, . "Especificación y Estabilidad de la Demanda por Dinero en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 011, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. McCallum, Bennett T., 2001. "Indeterminacy, bubbles, and the fiscal theory of price level determination," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 19-30, February.
  4. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2000. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," NBER Working Papers 6545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. S. Illeris & G. Akehurst, 2001. "Introduction," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-4, January.
  6. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1998. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," CFS Working Paper Series 1998/16, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
  7. Juan Manuel Julio & Javier Gómez, . "Output Gap Estimation, Estimation Uncertainty and its Effect on Policy Rules," Borradores de Economia 125, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  8. Allan H. Meltzer, 2001. "Money and monetary policy: an essay in honor of Darryl Francis," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 23-32.
  9. Fernando Alvarez & Robert E. Lucas, Jr. & Warren E. Weber, 2001. "Interest rates and inflation," Working Papers 609, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  10. Luis Fernando Melo & Fabio H. Nieto & Carlos Esteban Posada & Yanneth Rocío Betancourt, 2001. "Un Índice Coincidente para la Actividad Económica Colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003678, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  11. Jurgen A. Doornik & Henrik Hansen, 2008. "An Omnibus Test for Univariate and Multivariate Normality," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(s1), pages 927-939, December.
  12. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Luis Eduardo Arango, 1999. "Componentes no observados de la inflación en Colombia," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  14. Söderlind, Paul, 1998. "Solution and Estimation of RE Macromodels with Optimal Policy," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 256, Stockholm School of Economics.
  15. Fung, Ben & Mitnick, Scott & Remolona, Eli, 1999. "Uncovering Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums From Internationally Integrated Financial Markets," Working Papers 99-6, Bank of Canada.
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Cited by:
  1. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Téllez Corredor & Juan Carlos Parra Alvarez, . "La Tasa de Interés Natural en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 412, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Ignacio Lozano, 2008. "Budget Deficit, Money Growth and Inflation: Evidence from the Colombian Case," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 005127, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. Miguel Urrutia, 2002. "UNA VISIÓN ALTERNATIVA: La Política Monetaria y Cambiaria en la Última Década," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003731, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  4. Andrés Felipe Londoño & Jorge Andrés Tamayo & Carlos Alberto Velásquez, 2012. "Dinámica de la política monetaria e inflación objetivo en Colombia: una aproximación FAVAR," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  5. repec:cml:incocp:1-07 is not listed on IDEAS

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