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Un Índice Coincidente para la Actividad Económica Colombiana

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  • Luis Fernando Melo

    ()

  • Fabio H. Nieto
  • Carlos Esteban Posada

    ()

  • Yanneth Rocío Betancourt

Abstract

Dentro de la teoría de los ciclos económicos, la metodología de indicadores económicos coincidentes y líderes ha jugado un papel importante en la descripción y pronóstico del estado de la actividad económica. Una forma utilizada para calcular índices compuestos de variables indicadoras es el uso de modelos de probabilidad explícitos, en los cuales el índice coincidente corresponde a una variable no observable que representa el estado general de la economía y permite identificar aquello que se busca predecir con el índice líder. En este documento se calcula un índice coincidente para la actividad económica de Colombia utilizando nuevas técnicas econométricas y corresponde a la primera parte de un proyecto de indicadores para la economía colombiana en el cual se pretende estimar un índice líder.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 003678.

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Length: 66
Date of creation: 31 Jan 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003678

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Keywords: Estado de la economía;

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References

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  1. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators," NBER Working Papers 2772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1992. "Business Cycles," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226978901.
  3. Filippo Altissimo & Domenico J. Marchetti & Gian Paolo Oneto, 2000. "The Italian Business Cycle: Coincident and Leading Indicators and Some Stylized Facts," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 59(2), pages 147-220, September.
  4. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
  5. Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977. "Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory," Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. Martha Misas A. & Marla Ripoll N. & Enrique López E., 1995. "Una Descripción Del Ciclo Industrial En Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003707, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  7. Altissimo, F. & Marchetti, D.J. & Oneto, G.P., 2000. "The Italian Business Cycle: Coincident and Leading Indicators and Some Stylized Facts," Papers 377, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  8. Filippo Altissimo & Domenico J. Marchetti & Gian Paolo Oneto, 2000. "The Italian Business Cycle; Coincident and Leading Indicators and Some Stylized Facts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 377, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  9. Singleton, Kenneth J, 1980. "A Latent Time Series Model of the Cyclical Behavior of Interest Rates," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(3), pages 559-75, October.
  10. Andreou, Elena & Osborn, Denise R & Sensier, Marianne, 2000. "A Comparison of the Statistical Properties of Financial Variables in the USA, UK and Germany over the Business Cycle," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(4), pages 396-418, Special I.
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Cited by:
  1. Martha Misas & Carlos Esteban Posada & Diego Mauricio Vásquez, . "¿Está Determinado el Nivel de Precios por las Expectativas de Dinero y Producto en Colombia?," Borradores de Economia 191, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Luz Adriana Flórez & Carlos Esteban Posada & José Fernando Escobar, 2004. "El Crédito Y Sus Factores Determinantes: El Caso Colombiano (1990-2004)," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002482, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. Luis Fernando Melo & Fabio Nieto & Mario Ramos, . "A Leading Index for the Colombian Economic Activity," Borradores de Economia 243, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  4. Fabio H. Nieto, . "Identifiability of a Coincident Index Model for the Colombian Economy," Borradores de Economia 242, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  5. Fabio H. Nieto, 2003. "Identifiability Of Acoincident Index Model For The Colombian Economy," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002799, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  6. Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Tellez Corredor, 2006. "La Tasa de Interés Natural en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003088, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  7. Herman Kamil & José David Pulido & José Luis Torres, 2010. "El IMACO": un índice mensual líder de la actividad económica en Colombia"," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 007129, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  8. Desirée Castrillo R. & Carlos Mora G. & Carlos Torres G., 2010. "Mecanismos de transmisión de la política monetaria en Costa Rica: periodo 1991-2007," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(4), pages 549-599, octubre-d.
  9. Marco Antonio Laguna Vargas, 2010. "Características de la inflación importada en Bolivia: ¿puede contenerse con política cambiaria?," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(4), pages 463-493, octubre-d.
  10. Herman Kamil & José David Pulido & José Luis Torres, 2010. "El "IMACO": un índice mensual de la actividad económica en Colombia," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(4), pages 495-548, octubre-d.

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