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Un Índice Coincidente para la Actividad Económica Colombiana

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Author Info
Luis Fernando Melo ()
Fabio H. Nieto
Carlos Esteban Posada ()
Yanneth Rocío Betancourt

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Abstract

Dentro de la teoría de los ciclos económicos, la metodología de indicadores económicos coincidentes y líderes ha jugado un papel importante en la descripción y pronóstico del estado de la actividad económica. Una forma utilizada para calcular índices compuestos de variables indicadoras es el uso de modelos de probabilidad explícitos, en los cuales el índice coincidente corresponde a una variable no observable que representa el estado general de la economía y permite identificar aquello que se busca predecir con el índice líder. En este documento se calcula un índice coincidente para la actividad económica de Colombia utilizando nuevas técnicas econométricas y corresponde a la primera parte de un proyecto de indicadores para la economía colombiana en el cual se pretende estimar un índice líder.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 003678.

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Length: 66
Date of creation: 31 Jan 2001
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Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003678

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. María Ripoll & Martha Misas & Enrique López, . "Una Descripción del Ciclo Industrial en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 033, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Singleton, Kenneth J, 1980. "A Latent Time Series Model of the Cyclical Behavior of Interest Rates," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(3), pages 559-75, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Altissimo, F. & Marchetti, D.J. & Oneto, G.P., 2000. "The Italian Business Cycle: Coincident and Leading Indicators and Some Stylized Facts," Papers 377, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  4. Filippo Altissimo & Domenico J. Marchetti & Gian Paolo Oneto, 2000. "The Italian Business Cycle; Coincident and Leading Indicators and Some Stylized Facts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 377, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  5. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1990. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Reprints 1380, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  6. Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977. "Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory," Working Papers 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
  7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators," NBER Working Papers 2772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Filippo Altissimo & Domenico J. Marchetti & Gian Paolo Oneto, 2000. "The Italian Business Cycle: Coincident and Leading Indicators and Some Stylized Facts," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 59(2), pages 147-220, September.
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  1. Fabio H. Nieto, 2003. "Identifiability Of Acoincident Index Model For The Colombian Economy," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002799, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  2. Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Tellez Corredor, 2006. "La Tasa de Interés Natural en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003088, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Luis Fernando Melo & Fabio Nieto & Mario Ramos, . "A Leading Index for the Colombian Economic Activity," Borradores de Economia 243, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Fabio H. Nieto, . "Identifiability of a Coincident Index Model for the Colombian Economy," Borradores de Economia 242, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  5. Luz Adriana Flórez & Carlos Esteban Posda & José Fernando Escobar, . "El crédito y sus factores determinantes: el caso colombiano (1990 -2004)," Borradores de Economia 311, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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