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¿Está Determinado el Nivel de Precios por las Expectativas de Dinero y Producto en Colombia?

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  • Martha Misas A.

    ()

  • Carlos Esteban Posada

    ()

  • Diego Mauricio Vásquez

    ()

Abstract

La corriente tradicional de investigación teórica y empírica conocida como la “teoría cuantitativa del dinero” ha sostenido que la cantidad de éste es el principal factor determinante del nivel de precios. Pero no siempre ha habido un consenso al respecto. Por ejemplo, hay quienes interpretan la ejecución de la estrategia denominada “inflation targeting” (IT), utilizada en la actualidad por muchos bancos centrales para alcanzar una meta de inflación, entre ellos el colombiano, como síntoma de una supuesta irrelevancia de la cantidad de dinero para la determinación del nivel de precios o de su tasa de aumento, la inflación1. Es más, entre los funcionarios encargados de la política monetaria de Estados Unidos2 habría una tendencia inclinada a rechazar las enseñanzas de la teoría cuantitativa, a juzgar por la siguiente afirmación: “A consensus has emerged among practitioners that the instrument of monetary policy ought to be the short-term interest rate, that policy should be focused on the control of inflation, and that inflation can be reduced by increasing short-term interest rates. At the center of this consensus is a rejection of the quantity theory. ...” (Alvarez et al. [2001]). Aunque no creemos que exista necesariamente incompatibilidad entre la teoría cuantitativa y la estrategia IT o los modelos más utilizados para explicar y defender tal estrategia, si es indudable que tanto su diseño como su ejecución y divulgación en la opinión pública pueden tener diversas interpretaciones, siendo algunas contrarias a dicha teoría3. A nuestro jucio, el hecho de que la estrategia IT sea percibida, en ocasiones, como “anticuantitativista” es una de las razones para volver a poner a prueba la hipótesis cuantitativa según la cual la cantidad de dinero y el ingreso real son determinantes fundamentales del nivel de precios.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 003807.

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Length: 21
Date of creation: 31 Oct 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000094:003807

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  1. Juan Manuel Julio & Javier Gómez, 1999. "Outpout Gap Estimation, Estimation Uncertainty And Its Effect On Policy Rules," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003309, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Luis Fernando Melo & Fabio H. Nieto & Carlos Esteban Posada & Yanneth Rocío Betancourt, 2001. "Un Índice Coincidente para la Actividad Económica Colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003678, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. Bennett T. McCallum, . "Indeterminacy, Bubbles, and the Fiscal Theory of Price Level Determination," GSIA Working Papers 1998-19, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  4. S. Illeris & G. Akehurst, 2001. "Introduction," The Service Industries Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-4, January.
  5. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1998. "Inflation Targeting as a Monetary Policy Rule," NBER Working Papers 6790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Fung, Ben & Mitnick, Scott & Remolona, Eli, 1999. "Uncovering Inflation Expectations and Risk Premiums From Internationally Integrated Financial Markets," Working Papers 99-6, Bank of Canada.
  7. John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Karen Cabos & Nikolaus Siegfried, 2004. "Controlling inflation in Euroland," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 549-558.
  9. Söderlind, Paul, 1998. "Solution and Estimation of RE Macromodels with Optimal Policy," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 256, Stockholm School of Economics.
  10. Allan H. Meltzer, 2001. "Money and monetary policy: an essay in honor of Darryl Francis," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 23-32.
  11. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
  12. Fernando Alvarez & Robert E. Lucas & Warren E. Weber, 2001. "Interest Rates and Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 219-225, May.
  13. Jurgen A Doornik & Henrik Hansen, . "An omnibus test for univariate and multivariate normalit," Economics Papers W4&91., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  14. Martha Misas A. & Hugo Oliveros C. & José Darío Uribe, 1994. "Especificación Y Estabilidad De La Demanda Por Dinero En Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002588, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  15. Luis Eduardo Arango, 1999. "Componentes no observados de la inflación en Colombia," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
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Cited by:
  1. Miguel Urrutia, 2002. "UNA VISIÓN ALTERNATIVA: La Política Monetaria y Cambiaria en la Última Década," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003731, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Ignacio Lozano, . "Budget Deficit, Money Growth and Inflation: Evidence from the Colombian Case," Borradores de Economia 537, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Tellez Corredor, 2006. "La Tasa de Interés Natural en Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003088, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  4. Andrés Felipe Londoño & Jorge Andrés Tamayo & Carlos Alberto Velásquez, 2012. "Dinámica de la política monetaria e inflación objetivo en Colombia: una aproximación FAVAR," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  5. repec:cml:incocp:1-07 is not listed on IDEAS

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