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Abstract

A fin de interpretar el desempeño del crédito bancario observado durante los años 90 y principios del actual decenio en Colombia, se construyó un modelo teórico de equilibrio general dinámico. Además, se puso a prueba econométrica la ecuación generada en tal modelo que establece una relación de equilibrio entre depósitos, crédito y tasa de interés activa (con datos del período 1990:01 - 2004:04). Las pruebas econométricas y los impulsos-respuestas (estos últimos obtenidos gracias a la metodología de “tendencias comunes”) permiten considerar plausibles dos hipótesis: a) existe una relación de equilibrio entre depósitos, crédito y tasa de interés activa como la que se deduce del modelo teórico, y b) la crisis de finales de los 90 fue una ruptura transitoria del equilibrio y no un cambio estructural, así que la situación actual (junio de 2004) puede entenderse como una etapa de retorno al equilibrio.

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Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 002482.

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Length: 40
Date of creation: 31 Oct 2004
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Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002482

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Find related papers by JEL classification:

• C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
• E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
• G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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1. P.J.G. Vlaar, 1998. "On the asymptotic distribution of impulse response functions with long run restrictions," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 539, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
   
   • Vlaar, Peter J.G., 2004. "On The Asymptotic Distribution Of Impulse Response Functions With Long-Run Restrictions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(05), pages 891-903, October.
2. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1990. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
   
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   • Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
3. Sebastian Edwards & Carlos A. Vegh, 1997. "Banks and Macroeconomics Disturbances under Predetermined Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 5977, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
   
   • Edwards, Sebastian & Vegh, Carlos A., 1997. "Banks and macroeconomic disturbances under predetermined exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 239-278, October.
   • Sebastian Edwards & Carlos A. Végh, 1997. "Banks and Macroeconomic Disturbances Under Predetermined Exchange Rates," CEMA Working Papers: Serie Documentos de Trabajo. 115, Universidad del CEMA.
4. Adolfo Barajas & Enrique López & Hugo Oliveros, . "¿Por qué en Colombia el Crédito al Sector Privado es tan Reducido," Borradores de Economia 185, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
   
   • Enrique López & Adolfo Barajas & Hugo Oliveros, 2001. "¿ Por qué en Colombia el Crédito al Sector Privado es tan Reducido?," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003787, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
5. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet, 1997. "Microeconomics of Banking," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061937.
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7. Trujillo, Edgar & Posada Posada, Carlos Esteban, 1993. "El encaje optimo," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 38, pages 105-118, Enero Jun.
8. Joseph Atta-Mensah & Ali Dib, 2003. "Bank Lending, Credit Shocks, and the Transmission of Canadian Monetary Policy," Working Papers 03-9, Bank of Canada.
   
   • Atta-Mensah, Joseph & Dib, Ali, 2008. "Bank lending, credit shocks, and the transmission of Canadian monetary policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 159-176.
9. Ramon Caminal & Carmen Matutes, 2002. "Can competition in the credit market be excessive?," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 527.02, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
   
   • Caminal, Ramón & Matutes, Carmen, 1997. "Can Competition in the Credit Market be Excessive?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1725, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
10. Elosegui, Pedro Luis, 2003. "Aggregate risk, credit rationing and capital accumulation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 668-696.
11. Luis Fernando Melo & Fabio H.Nieto & Carlos Esteban Posada & Yaneth Rocío Betancourt & Juan David Barón, . "Un Indice Coincidente para la Actividad Económica Colombiana," Borradores de Economia 195, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    
    • Luis Fernando Melo & Fabio H. Nieto & Carlos Esteban Posada & Yanneth Rocío Betancourt, 2001. "Un Índice Coincidente para la Actividad Económica Colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003678, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
12. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
13. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H, 1988. "Money and Credit in the Monetary Transmission Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 446-51, May.
14. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I, 1984. "Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 363-80, June.
15. Fama, Eugene F., 1980. "Banking in the theory of finance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 39-57, January.

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Cited by:

1. Leonardo Villar Gómez & David Salamanca Rojas & Andrés Murcia Pabón, 2005. "Crédito, Represión Financiera y Flujos de Capitales en Colombia: 1974-2003," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002236, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
   
   • Villar Gómez Leonardo & David M. Salamanca Rojas & Andrés Murcia Pabón, 2005. "Crédito, represión financiera y flujos de capitales en Colombia: 1974-2003," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
   • Leonardo Villar Gómez & David M. Salamanca Rojas & Andrés Murcia Pabón, . "Crédito, Represión Financiera y Flujos de Capitales en Colombia 1974-2003," Borradores de Economia 322, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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