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El Crédito Y Sus Factores Determinantes: El Caso Colombiano (1990-2004)

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  • Luz Adriana Flórez

    ()

  • Carlos Esteban Posada

    ()

  • José Fernando Escobar

    ()

Abstract

A fin de interpretar el desempeño del crédito bancario observado durante los años 90 y principios del actual decenio en Colombia, se construyó un modelo teórico de equilibrio general dinámico. Además, se puso a prueba econométrica la ecuación generada en tal modelo que establece una relación de equilibrio entre depósitos, crédito y tasa de interés activa (con datos del período 1990:01 - 2004:04). Las pruebas econométricas y los impulsos-respuestas (estos últimos obtenidos gracias a la metodología de “tendencias comunes”) permiten considerar plausibles dos hipótesis: a) existe una relación de equilibrio entre depósitos, crédito y tasa de interés activa como la que se deduce del modelo teórico, y b) la crisis de finales de los 90 fue una ruptura transitoria del equilibrio y no un cambio estructural, así que la situación actual (junio de 2004) puede entenderse como una etapa de retorno al equilibrio.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 002482.

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Length: 40
Date of creation: 31 Oct 2004
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Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002482

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Keywords: Depósitos bancarios;

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References

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  1. Enrique López & Adolfo Barajas & Hugo Oliveros, 2001. "¿ Por qué en Colombia el Crédito al Sector Privado es tan Reducido?," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003787, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  2. Caminal, Ramón & Matutes, Carmen, 1997. "Can Competition in the Credit Market be Excessive?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1725, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Xavier Freixas & Jean-Charles Rochet, 1997. "Microeconomics of Banking," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061937, December.
  4. Edwards, Sebastian & Vegh, Carlos A., 1997. "Banks and macroeconomic disturbances under predetermined exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 239-278, October.
  5. Mellander, Erik & Vredin, A & Warne, A, 1992. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 369-94, Oct.-Dec..
  6. Luis Fernando Melo & Fabio H. Nieto & Carlos Esteban Posada & Yanneth Rocío Betancourt, 2001. "Un Índice Coincidente para la Actividad Económica Colombiana," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003678, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
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  8. Joseph Atta-Mensah & Ali Dib, 2003. "Bank Lending, Credit Shocks, and the Transmission of Canadian Monetary Policy," Working Papers 03-9, Bank of Canada.
  9. Elosegui, Pedro Luis, 2003. "Aggregate risk, credit rationing and capital accumulation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 668-696.
  10. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H, 1988. "Money and Credit in the Monetary Transmission Process," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 446-51, May.
  11. P.J.G. Vlaar, 1998. "On the asymptotic distribution of impulse response functions with long run restrictions," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 539, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  12. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
  13. Trujillo, Edgar & Posada Posada, Carlos Esteban, 1993. "El encaje optimo," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 38, pages 105-118, Enero Jun.
  14. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I, 1984. "Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 363-80, June.
  15. Fama, Eugene F., 1980. "Banking in the theory of finance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 39-57, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Villar Gómez Leonardo & David M. Salamanca Rojas & Andrés Murcia Pabón, 2005. "Crédito, represión financiera y flujos de capitales en Colombia: 1974-2003," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.

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