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Crédito Y Depósitos Bancarios En Colombia (1990-2004): Una Relación De Largo Plazo

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  • Luz Adriana Flórez

    ()

  • Carlos Esteban Posada
  • José Fernando Escobar

    ()

Abstract

A fin de interpretar el desempeño del crédito bancario observado durante los años noventa y principios del actual decenio en Colombia, se construyó un modelo teórico de equilibrio general dinámico. Además, se puso a prueba econométrica la ecuación generada en tal modelo que establece una relación de equilibrio entre depósitos, crédito y tasa de interés activa (con datos del período 1990:01- 2004:04). Las pruebas econométricas y los impulsos-respuestas (estos últimos obtenidos gracias a la metodología de «tendencias comunes») permiten considerar plausibles dos hipótesis: a) existe una relación de equilibrio entre depósitos, crédito y tasa de interés activa como la que se deduce del modelo teórico, y b) la crisis de finales de los años noventa fue una ruptura transitoria del equilibrio y no un cambio estructural, así que la situación actual (junio de 2004) puede entenderse como una etapa de retorno al equilibrio.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE in its journal ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA.

Volume (Year): (2005)
Issue (Month): ()
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Handle: RePEc:col:000107:002235

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Keywords: Depósitos bancarios; crédito; tasa de interés; vector de corrección;

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References

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  1. Ramon Caminal & Carmen Matutes, 2002. "Can competition in the credit market be excessive?," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 527.02, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
  2. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
  3. Edwards, Sebastian & Vegh, Carlos A., 1997. "Banks and macroeconomic disturbances under predetermined exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 239-278, October.
  4. Atta-Mensah, Joseph & Dib, Ali, 2008. "Bank lending, credit shocks, and the transmission of Canadian monetary policy," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 159-176.
  5. Andrés Felipe Arias, 2001. "Banking Productivity And Economic Fluctuations: Colombia 1998-2000," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002050, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  6. Trujillo, Edgar & Posada Posada, Carlos Esteban, 1993. "El encaje optimo," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 38, pages 105-118, Enero Jun.
  7. Mellander, Erik & Vredin, A & Warne, A, 1992. "Stochastic Trends and Economic Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(4), pages 369-94, Oct.-Dec..
  8. Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso & Juana Téllez Corredor & José Fernando Escobar, . "La Inflación Subyacente en Colombia: Un Enfoque de Tendencias Estocásticas Comunes Asociadas a un VEC Estructural," Borradores de Economia 324, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  9. Adolfo Barajas & Enrique López & Hugo Oliveros, . "¿Por qué en Colombia el Crédito al Sector Privado es tan Reducido," Borradores de Economia 185, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  10. Elosegui, Pedro Luis, 2003. "Aggregate risk, credit rationing and capital accumulation," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 668-696.
  11. Fama, Eugene F., 1980. "Banking in the theory of finance," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 39-57, January.
  12. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I, 1984. "Money, Credit, and Prices in a Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(3), pages 363-80, June.
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