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Crédito, represión financiera y flujos de capitales en Colombia: 1974-2003


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  • Villar Gómez Leonardo


  • David M. Salamanca Rojas


  • Andrés Murcia Pabón



El grado de profundización financiera en Colombia, medido por la relación entre el crédito al sector privado y el PIB, se ubicaba a finales de 2003 por debajo de los niveles que tenía treinta años atrás. Esos niveles son extremadamente bajos en comparación con los de economías desarrolladas y con los de economías en desarrollo exitosas. Este trabajo analiza los vínculos entre dicho indicador de profundización, los flujos externos de capital y la regulación financiera en Colombia, entre 1974 y 2003. Con métodos de descomposición contable y ejercicios econométricos sencillos, se presenta una visión histórica y se hacen análisis cuantitativos sobre sus determinantes. Se observa que los ciclos en el crédito doméstico al sector privado en Colombia han coincidido con ciclos en la misma dirección en los flujos externos de capital y que ese comportamiento procíclico del crédito ha sido reforzado por la política de regulación financiera.

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Volume (Year): (2005)
Issue (Month): ()

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Handle: RePEc:col:000090:002237

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Keywords: crédito privado; flujos de capital; represión financiera; ciclos económicos;

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  1. Luz Adriana Flórez & Carlos Esteban Posda & José Fernando Escobar, . "El crédito y sus factores determinantes: el caso colombiano (1990 -2004)," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica de Colombia 311, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Ross Levine, 2004. "Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 10766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Beck, Thorsten & Levine, Ross & Loayza, Norman, 2000. "Finance and the sources of growth," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 58(1-2), pages 261-300.
  4. Rajan, Raghuram G & Zingales, Luigi, 1998. "Financial Dependence and Growth," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 88(3), pages 559-86, June.
  5. James G. MacKinnon, 2010. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests," Working Papers, Queen's University, Department of Economics 1227, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  6. Adolfo Barajas & Roberto Steiner, 2002. "Credit Stagnation in Latin America," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 02/53, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Roberto Junguito & Hernán Rincón, . "La Política Fiscal en el Siglo XX en Colombia," Borradores de Economia, Banco de la Republica de Colombia 318, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  8. Engle, Robert F. & Yoo, Byung Sam, 1987. "Forecasting and testing in co-integrated systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 143-159, May.
  9. Levine, Ross, 1996. "Financial development and economic growth : views and agenda," Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank 1678, The World Bank.
  10. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, 2001. "Financial Systems, Industrial Structure, and Growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(4), pages 467-482.
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