Financial Conditions Index: Early and Leading Indicator for Colombia
AbstractThis paper is an attempt at constructing a simple and effective macroprudential tool for policymakers. By integrating the joint occurrences of the main financialmarkets in Colombia into a single Financial Conditions Index (FCI), we hope to synthesize the information embedded in them regarding possible future economicoutcomes. To do this, we use monthly data on 21 variables for the period comprised between July, 1991 - June, 2010 and apply Principal Component Analysis (PCA) ontheir correlation matrix. On the one hand, we evaluate the predictive capacity of the FCI in forecasting GDP growth at different time horizons and find that it performs better as a leading indicator of real activity than other individual financial variables and an autoregressive model of GDP growth. Additionally, we are interested in testing the FCI´s long-term capability to correctly anticipate periods of distress in the economy, and find that the index could be used as an effective early-warning indicator. Hence, our FCI seems to represent a useful instrument for both financial stability and macroprudential supervision purposes.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE in its journal ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA.
Volume (Year): (2011)
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Financial conditions index; early-warningindicators; leading indicators; macroprudential supervision; principal component analysis;
Other versions of this item:
- Esteban Gómez & Andrés Murcia Pabón & Nancy Zamudio Gómez, . "Financial Conditions Index: Early and Leading Indicator for Colombia?," Temas de Estabilidad Financiera 055, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
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