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Financial Condition Index And Interest Rate Settings: A Comparative Analysis

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  • Alberto Montagnoli
  • Oreste Napolitano

Abstract

In the last thirty years, there has been a widespread move towards financial liberalisation, both within and across national borders. This economic development brought researchers to investigate the link between asset prices, inflation and the conduct of monetary policy. Starting from the seminal work of Alchian and Klein (1973) it is often argued that the forward-looking nature of asset prices makes them good proxies for the information left out of conventional inflation measures. It is also widely accepted that asset price inflation developments are closely associated with general inflation trends. This paper investigates the role of asset prices in the conduct of monetary policy in United States, Canada, Euro Area and United Kingdom. It has two focal points. First, we construct Financial Condition Indexes for four countries using the Kalman Filter algorithm. This methodology allows us to capture the changes of the weights associated with each financial variable in explaining the output gap over time. Second, we proceed by estimating forward-looking Taylor rules augmented for FCI. Our results suggest that the Financial Condition Index enter positively and statistically significant into the FED, Bank of England and Bank of Canada interest rate setting. This gives a positive view for the use of the FCI as an important short term indicator to guide the conduct of monetary policy in three out of four countries analyzed.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy in its series Working Papers with number 8_2005.

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Length: 59 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:prt:wpaper:8_2005

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  1. A. Kontonikas & A. Montagnoli, 2002. "Has Monetary Policy Reacted To Asset Price Movements: Evidence From The Uk," Public Policy Discussion Papers 02-11, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
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Cited by:
  1. Eleni Angelopoulou & Hiona Balfoussia & Heather D. Gibson, 2012. "Building a financial conditions index for the euro area and selected euro area countries: what does it tell us about the crisis?," Working Papers 147, Bank of Greece.
  2. Swany, Vighneswara, 2013. "Banking System Resilience and Financial Stability," MPRA Paper 47512, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Oreste Napolitano, 2006. "Is The Impact Of Ecb Monetary Policy On Emu Stock Market Returns Asymmetric?," Working Papers 3_2006, D.E.S. (Department of Economic Studies), University of Naples "Parthenope", Italy.
  4. Esteban Gómez & Andrés Murcia & Nancy Zamudio, 2011. "Financial Conditions Index: Early and Leading Indicator for Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  5. Vítor, Castro, 2011. "Can central banks' monetary policy be described by a linear (augmented) Taylor rule or by a nonlinear rule?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(4), pages 228-246, December.
  6. Castro, Vítor, 2008. "Are Central Banks following a linear or nonlinear (augmented) Taylor rule?," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 872, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  7. Swamy, Vighneswara, 2013. "Banking System Resilience and Financial Stability - An Evidence from Indian Banking," MPRA Paper 49597, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Jan Willem van den End, 2006. "Indicator and boundaries of financial stability," DNB Working Papers 097, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  9. Kirsten Thompson & Renee van Eyden & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Identifying a financial conditions index for South Africa," Working Papers 201333, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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