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Early Warning Indicators for Latin America""

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  • Fernando Tenjo

    ()

  • Martha López

    ()

Abstract

We explore the performance of a set of early warning indicators for a group of Latin American economies under the endogenous cycle perspective. For this group of countries, the paper confirms the results of work on industrialized countries that a combination of asset prices and credit provides valuable information of probable future financial crises. However, we go a step further in the analysis of emerging economies and find that a combination of capital flows from abroad and credit is an even superior leading indicator of such events.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 007073.

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Length: 21
Date of creation: 08 Jun 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000094:007073

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Keywords: Financial (in) stability; early warning indicators; financial accelerator.;

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  1. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2008. "What Happens During Recessions, Crunches and Busts?," CEPR Discussion Papers, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers 7085, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2008. "Banking Crises: An Equal Opportunity Menace," NBER Working Papers 14587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist, 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," NBER Working Papers 6455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An anatomy of credit booms: evidence from macro aggregates and micro data," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 936, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Fernando Tenjo Galarza & Luisa F. Charry & Martha López P. & Juan M.Ramírez C., . "Acelerador Financiero y Ciclos Económicos en Colombia: Un Ejercicio Exploratorio," Borradores de Economia 451, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  6. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio M. Natalucci, 2003. "External constraints on monetary policy and the financial accelerator," BIS Working Papers 139, Bank for International Settlements.
  7. Martha R. López & Juan D. Prada & Norberto Rodríguez Niño, 2008. "Financial Accelerator Mechanism in a Small Open Economy," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA 004992, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  8. Luis Felipe Cespedes & Roberto Chang & Andres Velasco, 2000. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 7840, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Ian Christensen & Ali Dib, 2008. "The Financial Accelerator in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 155-178, January.
  10. Camilo E Tovar, 2006. "Devaluations, output and the balance sheet effect: a structural econometric analysis," BIS Working Papers 215, Bank for International Settlements.
  11. Marco Terrones & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2008. "An Anatomy of Credit Booms," IMF Working Papers, International Monetary Fund 08/226, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Carolina Arteaga cabrales & Carlos Huertas Campos & Sergio Olarte Armenta, 2012. "Índice de Desbalance Macroeconómico," Borradores de Economia 744, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2013. "Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 92-106.
  3. Juan Amador & José Gómez-González & Andrés Pabón, 2013. "Loan growth and bank risk: new evidence," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 365-379, December.
  4. Juan Sebastián Amador Torres & José Eduardo Gómez G. & Andrés Murcia Pabón, 2013. "Loans Growth and Banks´ Risk: New Evidence," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA 010710, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.

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