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Early Warning Indicators for Latin America""

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  • Fernando Tenjo

    ()

  • Martha López

    ()

Abstract

We explore the performance of a set of early warning indicators for a group of Latin American economies under the endogenous cycle perspective. For this group of countries, the paper confirms the results of work on industrialized countries that a combination of asset prices and credit provides valuable information of probable future financial crises. However, we go a step further in the analysis of emerging economies and find that a combination of capital flows from abroad and credit is an even superior leading indicator of such events.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 007073.

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Length: 21
Date of creation: 08 Jun 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000094:007073

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Keywords: Financial (in) stability; early warning indicators; financial accelerator.;

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  1. Fernando Tenjo Galarza & Luisa F. Charry & Martha López P. & Juan M.Ramírez C., . "Acelerador Financiero y Ciclos Económicos en Colombia: Un Ejercicio Exploratorio," Borradores de Economia 451, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Marco Terrones & M. Ayhan Kose & Stijn Claessens, 2008. "What Happens During Recessions, Crunches, and Busts?," IMF Working Papers 08/274, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Mark Gertler & Simon Gilchrist & Fabio Natalucci, 2001. "External constraints on monetary policy and the financial accelerator," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  4. Marco Terrones & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2008. "An Anatomy of Credit Booms," IMF Working Papers 08/226, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Martha R. López & Juan D. Prada & Norberto Rodríguez N., . "Financial Accelerator Mechanism in a Small Open Economy," Borradores de Economia 525, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  6. Camilo E Tovar, 2006. "Devaluations, output and the balance sheet effect: a structural econometric analysis," BIS Working Papers 215, Bank for International Settlements.
  7. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An anatomy of credit booms: evidence from macro aggregates and micro data," International Finance Discussion Papers, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) 936, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  8. Ian Christensen & Ali Dib, 2008. "The Financial Accelerator in an Estimated New Keynesian Model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 155-178, January.
  9. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2013. "Banking crises: An equal opportunity menace," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4557-4573.
  10. Bernanke, B. & Gertler, M. & Gilchrist, S., 1998. "The Financial Accelerator in a Quantitative Business Cycle Framework," Working Papers, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University 98-03, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  11. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Juan Amador & José Gómez-González & Andrés Pabón, 2013. "Loan growth and bank risk: new evidence," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 365-379, December.
  2. Juan Sebastián Amador Torres & José Eduardo Gómez G. & Andrés Murcia Pabón, 2013. "Loans Growth and Banks´ Risk: New Evidence," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 010710, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  3. Carolina Arteaga & Carlos Huertas Campos & Sergio Olarte Armenta, 2012. "Índice de Desbalance Macroeconómico," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 010077, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  4. Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2012. "Early warning indicators of asset price boom/bust cycles in emerging markets," BOFIT Discussion Papers, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition 22/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.

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