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Un Indice Coincidente para la Actividad Económica Colombiana

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  • Luis Fernando Melo

    ()

  • Fabio H.Nieto
  • Carlos Esteban Posada

    ()

  • Yaneth Rocío Betancourt

    ()

  • Juan David Barón

Abstract

Dentro de la teoría de los ciclos económicos, la metodología de indicadores económicos coincidentes y líderes ha jugado un papel importante en la descripción y pronóstico del estado de la actividad económica. Una forma utilizada para calcular índices compuestos de variables indicadoras es el uso de modelos de probabilidad explícitos, en los cuales el índice coincidente corresponde a una variable no observable que representa el estado general de la economía y permite identificar aquello que se busca predecir con el índice líder. En este documento se calcula un índice coincidente para la actividad económica de Colombia utilizando nuevas técnicas econométricas y corresponde a la primera parte de un proyecto de indicadores para la economía colombiana en el cual se pretende estimar un índice lider.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 195.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:195

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Keywords: Estado de la economía; índice coincidente; modelo de estados.;

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  1. Filippo Altissimo & Domenico J. Marchetti & Gian Paolo Oneto, 2000. "The Italian Business Cycle; Coincident and Leading Indicators and Some Stylized Facts," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers), Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area 377, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  2. María Ripoll & Martha Misas & Enrique López, . "Una Descripción del Ciclo Industrial en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 033, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. Andreou, Elena & Osborn, Denise R & Sensier, Marianne, 2000. "A Comparison of the Statistical Properties of Financial Variables in the USA, UK and Germany over the Business Cycle," Manchester School, University of Manchester, University of Manchester, vol. 68(4), pages 396-418, Special I.
  4. Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977. "Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory," Working Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  5. Altissimo, F. & Marchetti, D.J. & Oneto, G.P., 2000. "The Italian Business Cycle: Coincident and Leading Indicators and Some Stylized Facts," Papers, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi 377, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  6. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1992. "Business Cycles," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226978901, 01-2013.
  7. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Singleton, Kenneth J, 1980. "A Latent Time Series Model of the Cyclical Behavior of Interest Rates," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 21(3), pages 559-75, October.
  9. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators," NBER Working Papers 2772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Filippo Altissimo & Domenico J. Marchetti & Gian Paolo Oneto, 2000. "The Italian Business Cycle: Coincident and Leading Indicators and Some Stylized Facts," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 59(2), pages 147-220, September.
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Cited by:
  1. Herman Kamil & José David Pulido & José Luis Torres, 2010. "El "IMACO": un índice mensual de la actividad económica en Colombia," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(4), pages 495-548, octubre-d.
  2. Fabio H. Nieto, . "Identifiability of a Coincident Index Model for the Colombian Economy," Borradores de Economia 242, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. Herman Kamil & José David Pulido & José Luis Torres, 2010. "El IMACO": un índice mensual líder de la actividad económica en Colombia"," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 007129, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  4. Fabio H. Nieto, 2003. "Identifiability Of Acoincident Index Model For The Colombian Economy," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002799, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  5. Martha Misas & Carlos Esteban Posada & Diego Mauricio Vásquez, . "¿Está Determinado el Nivel de Precios por las Expectativas de Dinero y Producto en Colombia?," Borradores de Economia 191, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  6. Luis Fernando Melo & Fabio Nieto & Mario Ramos V., 2003. "A Leading Index For The Colombian Economic Activity," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 001920, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  7. Juan José Echavarría Soto & Enrique López Enciso & Martha Misas Arango & Juana Téllez Corredor- Juan Carlos Parra Álvarez, 2007. "La Tasa De Interés Natural En Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  8. Luz Adriana Flórez & Carlos Esteban Posada & José Fernando Escobar, 2004. "El Crédito Y Sus Factores Determinantes: El Caso Colombiano (1990-2004)," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002482, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  9. Marco Antonio Laguna Vargas, 2010. "Características de la inflación importada en Bolivia: ¿puede contenerse con política cambiaria?," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(4), pages 463-493, octubre-d.
  10. Desirée Castrillo R. & Carlos Mora G. & Carlos Torres G., 2010. "Mecanismos de transmisión de la política monetaria en Costa Rica: periodo 1991-2007," Monetaria, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(4), pages 549-599, octubre-d.

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