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Optimal Forward-Looking Policy Rules in the Quarterly Projection Model of the Czech National Bank

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  • Jan Strasky
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    Abstract

    This paper analyses the performance of the inflation forecast-based (IFB) monetary policy rules in the quarterly projection model of the Czech National Bank. The paper begins by reviewing the model and its parametrization, including the variance-covariance matrix of disturbances employed in simulations. The main part of the paper presents the results of an extensive grid search over various targeting horizons and coefficient values for a simple IFB rule with optimized coefficients, and suggests three possibilities for improvement: a shorter targeting horizon, a higher relative weight placed on inflation gap stabilization, and a lower coefficient on partial interest rate adjustment. These results are supported by an analysis of the impact of individual shocks on the optimal coefficients of the IFB rule. The last section of the paper argues for inclusion of the real exchange rate stabilization objective in the policy maker’s loss function and repeats the grid search for an optimal rule allowing for the real exchange rate feedback term. The previous results are not dramatically altered and we conclude that the stabilization properties of the extended rules are comparable with the those of the original optimized IFB rules.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Czech National Bank, Research Department in its series Research and Policy Notes with number 2005/05.

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    Date of creation: Dec 2005
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    Handle: RePEc:cnb:rpnrpn:2005/05

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    Keywords: Exchange rates; inflation targeting; monetary policy rules; open economy.;

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    References

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    1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
    2. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1998. "Open-Economy Inflation Targeting," Seminar Papers 638, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    3. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 98-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    4. Dennis, Richard, 2004. "Solving for optimal simple rules in rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1635-1660, June.
    5. Alessandro Rebucci & Fabio Ghironi, 2002. "Monetary Rules for Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 02/34, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Nicoletta Batini & Andrew G Haldane, 1999. "Forward-looking rules for monetary policy," Bank of England working papers 91, Bank of England.
    7. Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland & Katerina Smidkova, 2003. "Estimates of Fundamental Real Echange Rates for the Five EU Pre- Accession Countries," Macroeconomics 0303016, EconWPA.
    8. Levine, Paul & Currie, David, 1987. "The design of feedback rules in linear stochastic rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-28, March.
    9. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1997. "Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence," NBER Working Papers 6254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Laurence Ball, 1998. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 6760, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. William Poole, 1970. "Optimal choice of monetary policy instruments in a simple stochastic macro model," Staff Studies 57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    12. Soderlind, Paul, 1999. "Solution and estimation of RE macromodels with optimal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 813-823, April.
    13. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    14. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
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    Cited by:
    1. Magdalena Morgese Borys & Roman Horvath, 2008. "The Effects of Monetary Policy in the Czech Republic: An Empirical Study," International Trade and Finance Association Conference Papers 1109, International Trade and Finance Association.
    2. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski & Agata Miśkowiec, 2013. "How forward-looking are central banks? Some evidence from their forecasts," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(2), pages 142-146, February.

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