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Controlling Inflation in Euroland

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Author Info
Karen Cabos ()
Nikolaus A. Siegfried ()

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Abstract

For the sake of credibility the ECB has to commit to a clear policy strategy - a direct inflation target or an intermediate monetary target. We offer some information on the scale of control and indicator problems associated with both strategies. We estimate the links between monetary policy actions and inflation in dynamic linear models with the Kalman filter. Using European M3 that the ECB has published recently, we find that the overall control problems involved in targeting money are larger than for direct inflation targets.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Hamburg University, Department of Economics in its series Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers with number 20102.

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Length: 16 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2001
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Handle: RePEc:ham:qmwops:20102

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Related research
Keywords: Monetary Policy; Time-Varying Parameter Models; Inflation Targeting;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications

References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Barro, Robert J. & Gordon, David B., 1983. "Rules, discretion and reputation in a model of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 101-121. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Browne, F.X. & Fagan, G. & Henry, J., 1997. "Money Demand in EU Countries : A Survey," Papers 7, European Monetary Institute.
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  3. Gabriel Fagan & JÊrÆme Henry, 1998. "Long run money demand in the EU: Evidence for area-wide aggregates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 483-506. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Richard Clarida & Mark Gertler, 1996. "How the Bundesbank Conducts Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
  6. Loungani, Prakash & Rush, Mark, 1995. "The Effect of Changes in Reserve Requirements on Investment and GNP," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(2), pages 511-26, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1997. "Inflation forecast targeting: Implementing and monitoring inflation targets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(6), pages 1111-1146, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Mosconi, Rocco & Giannini, Carlo, 1992. "Non-causality in Cointegrated Systems: Representation Estimation and Testing," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 399-417, August.
  9. Francis X. Diebold & Robert S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Kirstin Hubrich, 1999. "Estimation of a German money demand system - a long-run analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 77-99. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1990. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Working Papers 2966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Frederic S. Mishkin & Adam S. Posen, 1997. "Inflation targeting: lessons from four countries," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Aug, pages 9-110. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Karen Cabos & Michael Funke & Nikolaus A. Siegfried, 2001. "Some Thoughts on Monetary Targeting vs. Inflation Targeting," German Economic Review, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(3), pages 219-238, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. von Hagen, Jürgen, 1998. "Money Growth Targeting," Seminar Papers 643, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Monticelli, Carlo & Strauss-Kahn, Marc-Olivier, 1993. "European Integration and the Demand for Broad Money," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 61(4), pages 345-66, December.
  16. Michael J. Dueker, 1995. "Narrow vs. broad measures of money as intermediate targets: some forecast results," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 41-51. [Downloadable!]
  17. Engle, Robert F & Hendry, David F & Richard, Jean-Francois, 1983. "Exogeneity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 51(2), pages 277-304, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Sichel, Daniel E., 1990. "The demand for money," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 8, pages 299-356 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-21, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Melisso Boschi & Alessandro Girardi, 2005. "Euro Area inflation: long-run determinants and short-run dynamics," ISAE Working Papers 60, ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses - (Rome, ITALY). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Martha Misas & Carlos Esteban Posada & Diego Mauricio Vásquez, . "¿Está Determinado el Nivel de Precios por las Expectativas de Dinero y Producto en Colombia?," Borradores de Economia 191, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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