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El Desempleo en Colombia

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  • Luis Eduardo Arango

    ()

  • Carlos Esteban Posada

    ()

Abstract

Este documento describe la evolución de la tasa de desempleo urbano en Colombia en el período 1984:1-2000:2. Incluye evidencia sobre algunas de las propiedades de las series de tiempo del mercado laboral tales como las tasas de desempleo, de ocupación y de participación. Se estiman las etapas de equilibrio y desequilibrio del mercado laboral y se establece, así, el período para el cual es válida la hipótesis de igualdad entre el componente de tendencia de la tasa de desempleo y la tasa natural. En este sentido, el documento discute la posibilidad de que el componente de tendencia haya tenido un crecimiento mayor que la tasa natural. En este sentido, el documento discute la posibilidad de que el componente de tendencia haya tenido un crecimiento mayor que la tasa natural a raíz de choques cuyos efectos son bastantes persistentes dada la inflexibilidad a la baja del salario real y otros costos salariales. Por ello, no se puede rechazar la hipótesis de histéresis de la tasa de desempleo. Suponiendo un crecimiento de la productividad de 1%, políticas para reducir el desempleo de 20% a 14.9%, según uno de los métodos de descomposición utilizados, no deberían tener consecuencias inflacionarias, siempre que el salario real y otros costos laborales sean flexibles a la baja. Niveles inferiores a 14.9% generarían presiones inflacionarias, a menos que disminuyan los impuestos a la nómina y mejoren los sistemas de información y adiestramiento de la fuerza laboral para lograr un mejor matching entre oferta y demanda de trabajo.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 176.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:176

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Keywords: Tasa de ocupación; tasa de desempleo; tasa global de participación; tasa de natural de desempleo; salrio real y componente de tendencia del desempleo.;

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  1. Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-27, June.
  2. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
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  4. Juan Manuel Julio, 2001. "How Uncertain are NAIRU Estimates in Colombia?," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002798, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  5. P. Fève & P. Y. Hénin & P. Jolivaldt, 2003. "Testing for hysteresis: Unemployment persistence and wage adjustment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 535-552, July.
  6. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  8. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
  9. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Working Papers 5477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Manning, Alan, 1993. "Wage Bargaining and the Phillips Curve: The Identification and Specification of Aggregate Wage Equations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 98-118, January.
  11. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  12. Juan Carlos Guataqui, 2000. "Estimaciones de la tasa natural de desempleo en Colombia: una revisión," BORRADORES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 002603, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  13. Luis Eduardo Arango, 1999. "Componentes no observados de la inflación en Colombia," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  14. Phelps, Edmund S, 2000. "Lessons in Natural-Rate Dynamics," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 51-71, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Carlos Enrique Castellar Palma, 2004. "Presente, Pedagogia Y Futuro De La Econometria," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO-CIDSE 003366, UNIVERSIDAD DEL VALLE - CIDSE.
  2. Carlos A. Arango & Martha Misas & Enrique López, 2006. "Economía subterránea en Colombia 1976-2003: una medición a partir de la demanda de efectivo," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  3. Martha Misas A & Enrique López E, 2001. "Desequilibrios Reales En Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  4. James Alm & Hugo López Castaño, 2002. "Payroll taxes in Colombia," WORKING PAPERS SERIES. DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 003316, FEDESARROLLO.
  5. Luis Arango & Carlos Posada, 2002. "Unemployment rate and the real wage behaviour: a neoclassical hint for the Colombian labour market adjustment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(7), pages 425-428.
  6. Rodrigo Taborda & Juan Carlos Guataqui, 2003. "Firm level evidence of efficiency wages and labor turnover in Colombia's manufacturing industry," BORRADORES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 002729, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  7. Juan D. Barón, 2010. "Primeras experiencias laborales de los profesionales colombianos: Probabilidad de empleo formal y salarios," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO SOBRE ECONOMÍA REGIONAL 007625, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ECONOMÍA REGIONAL.
  8. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada & Alejandro Charry, 2003. "La Participación Laboral en Colombia Según la Nueva Encuesta: ¿ Cambian sus Determinantes?," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003048, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  9. Juan Barón, 2012. "First job experiences of Colombian college graduates: probability of formal employment and wages," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 76, pages 55-86.
  10. José R. Gamarra, 2006. "¿Cómo se comportan las tasas de desempleo en siete ciudades colombianas?," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  11. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, . "Unemployment Rate and the Real Wage Behavoir: A Neoclassical Hint for the Colombian Labor Market Adjustment," Borradores de Economia 180, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  12. Céspedes Reynaga, Nikita, 2003. "Factores cíclicos y estructurales en la evolución de la tasa de desempleo," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 9, pages 199-221.

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