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El Desempleo en Colombia

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Author Info
Luis Eduardo Arango ()
Carlos Esteban Posada ()

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Abstract

Este documento describe la evolución de la tasa de desempleo urbano en Colombia en el período 1984:1-2000:2. Incluye evidencia sobre algunas de las propiedades de las series de tiempo del mercado laboral tales como las tasas de desempleo, de ocupación y de participación. Se estiman las etapas de equilibrio y desequilibrio del mercado laboral y se establece, así, el período para el cual es válida la hipótesis de igualdad entre el componente de tendencia de la tasa de desempleo y la tasa natural. En este sentido, el documento discute la posibilidad de que el componente de tendencia haya tenido un crecimiento mayor que la tasa natural. En este sentido, el documento discute la posibilidad de que el componente de tendencia haya tenido un crecimiento mayor que la tasa natural a raíz de choques cuyos efectos son bastantes persistentes dada la inflexibilidad a la baja del salario real y otros costos salariales. Por ello, no se puede rechazar la hipótesis de histéresis de la tasa de desempleo. Suponiendo un crecimiento de la productividad de 1%, políticas para reducir el desempleo de 20% a 14.9%, según uno de los métodos de descomposición utilizados, no deberían tener consecuencias inflacionarias, siempre que el salario real y otros costos laborales sean flexibles a la baja. Niveles inferiores a 14.9% generarían presiones inflacionarias, a menos que disminuyan los impuestos a la nómina y mejoren los sistemas de información y adiestramiento de la fuerza laboral para lograr un mejor matching entre oferta y demanda de trabajo.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 176.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:176

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Related research
Keywords: Tasa de ocupación; tasa de desempleo; tasa global de participación; tasa de natural de desempleo; salrio real y componente de tendencia del desempleo.;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Phelps, Edmund S, 2000. "Lessons in Natural-Rate Dynamics," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 51-71, January.
  2. Juan Manuel Julio, 2001. "How Uncertain are NAIRU Estimates in Colombia?," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002798, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-27, June.
  5. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1997. "Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number rome97-1, Summer.
  7. Staiger, Douglas & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Brunello, Giorgio & Lupi, Claudio & Ordine, Patrizia, 2000. "Regional Disparities and the Italian NAIRU," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 146-77, January.
  9. Fève, Patrick & Hénin, Pierre-Yves & Jolivaldt, Philippe, 1999. "Testing for hysteresis : unemployment persistence and wage adjustment," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9911, CEPREMAP. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Working Papers 5477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Blanchard, Olivier & Katz, Lawrence F, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Juan Carlos Guataqui, 2000. "Estimaciones de la tasa natural de desempleo en Colombia: una revisión," BORRADORES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 002603, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO - FACULTAD DE ECONOMÍA. [Downloadable!]
  13. Manning, Alan, 1993. "Wage Bargaining and the Phillips Curve: The Identification and Specification of Aggregate Wage Equations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 98-118, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Carlos Castellar & Jose Ignacio Uribe, 2004. "Evolution and structure of unemployment in the metropolitan area of Cali 1988-1998. Does the unemployment rate present hysteresis?," Colombian Economic Journal, Academia Colombiana de Ciencias Economicas, Colegio Mayor de Nuestra Senora del Rosario, Pontificia Universidad Javeriana, Universidad de Antioquia, Universidad de los Andes, Universidad del Valle, Un, vol. 2(1), pages 121-155, November. [Downloadable!]
  2. Carlos Arango A. & Martha Misas & Enrique López, . "Economía Subterránea en Colombia 1976-2003: Una medición a partir de la Demanda de Efectivo," Borradores de Economia 335, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. GAMARRA, José R., 2006. "¿Cómo se comportan las tasas de desempleo en siete ciudades colombianas?," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO - FACULTAD DE ECONOMÍA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Rodrigo Taborda & Juan Carlos Guataqui, 2003. "Firm level evidence of efficiency wages and labor turnover in Colombia's manufacturing industry," BORRADORES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 002729, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO - FACULTAD DE ECONOMÍA. [Downloadable!]
  5. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2001. "Unemployment Rate And The Real Wage Behavior: A Neoclassical Hint For The Colombian Labor Market Adjustment," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003736, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Martha Misas & Enrique López Enciso, . "Desequilibrios Reales en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 181, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada & Alejandro Charry, 2003. "La Participación Laboral en Colombia Según la Nueva Encuesta: ¿ Cambian sus Determinantes?," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003048, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Carlos Enrique Castellar Palma, 2004. "Presente, Pedagogia Y Futuro De La Econometria," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO-CIDSE 003366, UNIVERSIDAD DEL VALLE - CIDSE. [Downloadable!]
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