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Filtering for Current Analysis Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics Simon van Norden
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Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number
02-28.
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Length: 44 pages Abstract: This paper shows how existing band-pass filtering techniques and their extension can be applied to the common current-analysis problem of estimating current trends or cycles. These techniques give estimates that are "optimal" given the available data, so their standard errors represent a lower bound on what can be achieved with other univariate techniques. Applications to the problems of estimating current trend productivity growth, core inflation, and output gaps are considered.
Date of creation: 2002Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:02-28Contact details of provider: Postal: 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada Phone: 613 782-8899 Fax: 613 782-8874 Web page: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/
Order Information: Postal: Publications Distribution, Bank of Canada, 234 Wellington Street, Ottawa, Ontario, K1A 0G9, Canada Email: Web: http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/en/publication/pub_res.html
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Keywords: Econometric and statistical methods ; Potential output ; Find related papers by JEL classification: C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports :
References listed on IDEAS Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.: James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998.
"Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series ,"
NBER Working Papers
6528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999.
"Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series ,"
Handbook of Macroeconomics ,
in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64
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[Downloadable!] (restricted) Setterfield, M. A. & Gordon, D. V. & Osberg, L., 1992.
"Searching for a will o' the wisp : An empirical study of the NAIRU in Canada ,"
European Economic Review ,
Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 119-136, January.
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Other versions: Kuttner, Kenneth N, 1994.
"Estimating Potential Output as a Latent Variable ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 361-68, July.
Cogley, Timothy & Nason, James M., 1995.
"Effects of the Hodrick-Prescott filter on trend and difference stationary time series Implications for business cycle research ,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control ,
Elsevier, vol. 19(1-2), pages 253-278.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993.
"Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle ,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics ,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
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Guay, A & St-Amant, P, 1996.
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Other versions: Harvey, A C, 1985.
"Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series ,"
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American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-27, June.
Den Haan, Wouter & Sumner, Steven, 2001.
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[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Wouter J. Den Haan & Steven Sumner, 2001.
"The Comovements between Real Activity and Prices in the G7 ,"
NBER Working Papers
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Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999.
"Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series ,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics ,
MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions: Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999.
"The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time ,"
Macroeconomics
9907006, EconWPA.
[Downloadable!]
Other versions:
Athanasios Orphanides & Simon Van_Norden, 2000.
"The Reliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time ,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
0768, Econometric Society.
[Downloadable!] Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 1999.
"The reliability of output gap estimates in real time ,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
1999-38, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
[Downloadable!] Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2001.
"The Unreliability of Output Gap Estimates in Real Time ,"
CIRANO Working Papers
2001s-57, CIRANO.
[Downloadable!] Athanasios Orphanides & Simon van Norden, 2002.
"The Unreliability of Output-Gap Estimates in Real Time ,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics ,
MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 569-583, 07.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Torben Mark Pedersen, 1998.
"The Hodrick-Prescott Filter, the Slutzky Effect, and the Distortionary Effect of Filters ,"
Discussion Papers
98-09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999.
"The Band Pass Filter ,"
NBER Working Papers
7257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999.
"The Band pass filter ,"
Working Paper
9906, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
[Downloadable!] Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2003.
"The Band Pass Filter ,"
International Economic Review ,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(2), pages 435-465, 05.
[Downloadable!] (restricted) Staiger, Douglas & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1997.
"The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy ,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives ,
American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Wouter den Haan & STEVEN SUMNER, 2001.
"The Comovements Between Real Activity and Prices ,"
University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series
2001-05, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
[Downloadable!]
Charles Nelson & Eric Zivot, 2000.
"Why are Beveridge-Nelson and Unobserved-Component Decompositions of GDP so Different? ,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
0692, Econometric Society.
[Downloadable!]
St-Amant, P. & van Norden, S., 1997.
"Measurement of the Output Gap: A Discussion of Recent Research at the Bank of Canada ,"
Technical Reports
79, Bank of Canada.
[Downloadable!]
Gomez, Victor, 2001.
"The Use of Butterworth Filters for Trend and Cycle Estimation in Economic Time Series ,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics ,
American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 365-73, July.
Pollock, D. S. G., 2000.
"Trend estimation and de-trending via rational square-wave filters ,"
Journal of Econometrics ,
Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 317-334, December.
[Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full
references Cited by : (explanations , Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile , click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)
Michael Graff, 2004.
"Estimates of the output gap in real time: how well have we been doing? ,"
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series
DP 2004/04, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
[Downloadable!]
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