IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bdr/ensayo/v24y2006i50p154-211.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economía subterránea en Colombia 1976-2003: una medición a partir de la demanda de efectivo

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos A. Arango
  • Martha Misas
  • Enrique López

Abstract

La economía subterránea (ES), definida de manera suscinta como aquella asociada con actividades por fuera de las instituciones legales de un país, es de particular relevancia en Colombia debido al alcance que tiene la economía del narcotráfico y la economía informal evasora de la legislación fiscal y laboral; esto es particularmente importante no sólo para el banco central, pues la ES tiene una ingerencia directa en la demanda de efectivo, sino también por sus implicaciones fiscales e institucionales. En este trabajo se hace una revisión crítica del estado del arte sobre la estimación de la ES representado en los modelos estructurales:multiple indicators multiple causes (MIMIC) y dynamic multiple indicators multiple causes (DYMIMIC). En particular, se documenta el posible sesgo de variable omitida que estos pueden presentar en su estimación y las ventajas de representaciones más generales del tipo estado-espacio estimadas mediante filtro de Kalman, enfoque que es aplicado al caso colombiano, donde se parte de una función de demanda de efectivo y se estima la dinámica y tamaño de la ES en el período 1976-2003. Debido a los limitados grados de libertad, se calcularon intervalos de confianza por medio de un procedimiento de bootstrapping para establecer la imortancia de las distintas “causas” de la ES.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos A. Arango & Martha Misas & Enrique López, 2006. "Economía subterránea en Colombia 1976-2003: una medición a partir de la demanda de efectivo," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 24(50), pages 154-211, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:v:24:y:2006:i:50:p:154-211
    DOI: 10.32468/Espe.5004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/Espe.5004
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/Espe.5004?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Feige, Edgar L., 1990. "Defining and estimating underground and informal economies: The new institutional economics approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(7), pages 989-1002, July.
    2. Luis Eduardo Arango T. & Carlos Esteban Posada P., 2001. "El desempleo en Colombia," Coyuntura Social 12955, Fedesarrollo.
    3. Leopoldo Fergusson, 2003. "Tributación, Crecimiento Y Bienestar: El Caso Colombiano(1970-1999)," Documentos CEDE 3662, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    4. Bhattacharyya, Dilip K, 1999. "On the Economic Rationale of Estimating the Hidden Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(456), pages 348-359, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Loayza, Norman & Villa, Edgar & Misas, Martha, 2019. "Illicit activity and money laundering from an economic growth perspective: A model and an application to Colombia," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 442-487.
    2. Jorge E. Galán and & Miguel Sarmiento, 2008. "Banknote Printing at Modern central Banking: Trends, Costs and Efficiency," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 217-262, July-Dece.
    3. Branimir Jovanovic, 2015. "Kalman Filter Estimation of the Unrecorded Economy in Macedonia," Working Papers 2015-02, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    4. Mauricio Cárdenas, 2007. "Economic growth in Colombia: A reversal of "Fortune"?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 25(53), pages 220-259, January.
    5. Daniel MITCHELL RESTREPO, 2006. "Forecasting the Colombian Exchange Rate: Capital Adjustments and Politics vs. Traditional IRP, Trade Adjustments and Random Walk Frameworks," Archivos de Economía 11228, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    6. Odean B. White, 2008. "Determinants of Commercial Banks’ Cost of Financial Intermediation in Jamaica: a Maximum Likelihood Estimation Approach," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 129-159, July-Dece.
    7. Guillermo Vuletin, 2008. "What is the Size of the Pie? Measuring the Informal Economy in Latin America and the Caribbean," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 161-191, July-Dece.
    8. Vargas, Jose P Mauricio, 2012. "To be or not to be informal?: A Structural Simulation," MPRA Paper 41290, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Diana Marcela Jiménez, 2012. "La informalidad laboral en América Latina: ¿explicación estructuralista o institucionalista?," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, December.
    10. Yan Sun & Rupa Duttagupta, 2008. "Price Dynamics in the Eastern Caribbean," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 193-216, July-Dece.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nino Kokashvili & Irakli Barbakadze & Ketevani Kapanadze, 2017. "How Participating In The Shadow Economy Affects The Growth Of Latvian Firms," University of Tartu - Faculty of Economics and Business Administration Working Paper Series 101, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, University of Tartu (Estonia).
    2. Q M Ahmed & M Haider Hussain, 2008. "Estimating the Black Economy through a Monetary Approach: A Case Study of Pakistan," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 13(1), pages 45-60, March.
    3. Dagmara Nikulin & Ewa Lechman, 2021. "Shadow Economy in Poland: Results of the Survey," SpringerBriefs in Economics, in: Shadow Economy in Poland, chapter 0, pages 49-65, Springer.
    4. Canavire-Bacarreza, Gustavo & Martínez-Vázquez, Jorge & Vulovic, Violeta, 2013. "Taxation and Economic Growth in Latin America," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 4583, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Branimir Jovanovic, 2015. "Kalman Filter Estimation of the Unrecorded Economy in Macedonia," Working Papers 2015-02, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    6. Busato; Francesco & Bruno Chiarini & Vincenzo di Maro, 2005. "Directional Congestion and Regime Switching in a Long Memory Model for Electricity Prices," Economics Working Papers 2005-19, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    7. Leora Klapper & Raphael Amit & Mauro F. Guillén, 2010. "Entrepreneurship and Firm Formation across Countries," NBER Chapters, in: International Differences in Entrepreneurship, pages 129-158, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Stanisław Cichocki, 2008. "Shadow economy and its relations with tax system and state budget in Poland 1995 - 2007," Working Papers 2008-05, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    9. Donal Mac Géidigh & Friedrich Schneider & Matthias Blum, 2016. "Grey Matters: Charting the Development of the Shadow Economy," CESifo Working Paper Series 6234, CESifo.
    10. Luis Felipe Fajardo Pineda & Andrés Fernando Pava Vargas, 2021. "La evaluación multicriterio en la ubicación de las ventas ambulantes en Tibasosa, Boyacá, Colombia," Apuntes del Cenes, Universidad Pedagógica y Tecnológica de Colombia, vol. 40(72), pages 151-179, July.
    11. Friedrich Schneider & Dominik Enste, 1999. "Shadow Economies Around the World - Size, Causes, and Consequences," CESifo Working Paper Series 196, CESifo.
    12. repec:ces:ifodic:v:14:y:2017:i:4:p:19267788 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Amedeo Argentiero & Michele Bagella & Francesco Busato, 2008. "Money laundering in a two-sector model: using theory for measurement," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 341-359, December.
    14. Ramiro Rodríguez Revilla, 2011. "Modelos de equilibrio general dinámicos y estocásticos para Colombia 1995-2011," Revista Ecos de Economía, Universidad EAFIT, December.
    15. Nelson Eduardo Barreto & Mauricio Caicedo, 2011. "Estimación de la curva de Phillips para Colombia, periodo mensual 2001 - 2007," Documentos de Investigación 8212, Universidad de los Llanos.
    16. Jhon-James Mora & Andres Cendales & Carolina Caicedo, 2017. "Diplomas and educational mismatch in Cali using classified advertisements," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 86, pages 179-198, Enero - J.
    17. Friedrich Schneider & Friedrich Schneider, 2008. "Shadow Economies and Corruption all over the World: What do we Really Know?," Chapters, in: Michael Pickhardt & Edward Shinnick (ed.), The Shadow Economy, Corruption and Governance, chapter 7, pages 122-187, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Oksana Nezhyvenko, 2018. "Informal Employment in Ukraine and European Union Transition Countries," Erudite Ph.D Dissertations, Erudite, number ph18-03 edited by Philippe Adair, December.
    19. James Alm & Hugo López Castaño, 2002. "Payroll taxes in Colombia," Informes de Investigación 3316, Fedesarrollo.
    20. Miroslava Kostova Karaboytcheva & Luis Rubio Andrada, 2012. "The Impact of the Shadow Economy on the Country Risk Index," Chapters, in: Michael Pickhardt & Aloys Prinz (ed.), Tax Evasion and the Shadow Economy, chapter 7, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    21. Gemmell, Norman & Hasseldine, John, 2012. "The Tax Gap: A Methodological Review," Working Paper Series 18717, Victoria University of Wellington, Chair in Public Finance.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economía subterránea; carga fiscal; regulación del Gobierno; Estimación del filtro de Kalman; demanda de efectivo.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:v:24:y:2006:i:50:p:154-211. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.