Shadow economy and its relations with tax system and state budget in Poland 1995 - 2007
AbstractIn this paper, results of the research on measurement of shadow economy in Poland in the period 1995 - 2007 are presented. This research is motivated by controversial existing estimates. First, some definitions of shadow economy are reviewed. Then, on the basis of monetary methods, an econometric model for currency demand is built. Using estimation results, the size of shadow economy is assessed. According to these estimates shadow economy declined in the period 1995 – 2007 starting from 40% of GDP in 1995 and reaching about 10% of GDP in 2007. The paper also analyses relations between shadow economy, state budget and tax system. Measures for these relations are discussed and a Vector Autoregressive model is estimated. Impulse Reaction Functions are drawn, showing that an increase in indirect tax burden enlarges shadow economy. A contrary effect arises due to an increase in a) direct tax burden, b) budget balance.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw in its series Working Papers with number 2008-05.
Length: 23 pages
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
shadow economy; tax system; state budget; currency method; VAR;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- O17 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
- H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
- H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion
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