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Mission Implausible III: Measuring the Informal Sector in a Transition Economy using Macro Methods1

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  • Jan Hanousek
  • Filip Palda

Abstract

An easy and popular method for measuring the size of the underground economy is to use macro-data such as money demand or electricity demand to infer what the legitimate economy needs, and then to attribute the remaining consumption to the underground economy. Such inferences rely on the stability of parameters of the money demand and electricity demand equations, or at the very least on knowledge of how these parameters are changing. We argue that the pace of change of these parameters (such as velocity) is too variable in transition economies for the above methods of estimating the size of the underground economy to be applicable. We make our point by using the Czech Republic and other transition country data from the financial and electricity sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan Hanousek & Filip Palda, 2004. "Mission Implausible III: Measuring the Informal Sector in a Transition Economy using Macro Methods1," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-683, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
    • Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2004-683
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kaliberda, Aleksander, 1996. "Integrating the unofficial economy into the dynamics of post-socialist economies : a framework of analysis and evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1691, The World Bank.
    2. Dominik H. Enste & Friedrich Schneider, 2000. "Shadow Economies: Size, Causes, and Consequences," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(1), pages 77-114, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sergei Guriev & Andrei Rachinsky, 2006. "The Evolution of Personal Wealth in the Former Soviet Union and Central and Eastern Europe," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2006-120, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    2. Stanisław Cichocki, 2008. "Shadow economy and its relations with tax system and state budget in Poland 1995 - 2007," Working Papers 2008-05, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    3. Gérard Duchêne & Ramona Jimborean & Boris Najman, 2006. "Structure of Monetary Assets in Transition Economies: Financial Innovation and Structural Transformation," Post-Print hal-00270544, HAL.
    4. Chiumya, Chiza, 2007. "The Parallel Economy in Malawi: Size, Effect on Tax Revenue and Policy Options," MPRA Paper 9860, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    shadow economy; measureament of tax evasion; transition economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • E26 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Informal Economy; Underground Economy
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • P43 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Other Economic Systems - - - Finance; Public Finance

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