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El Desempleo En Colombia

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  • Luis Eduardo Arango T.

    ()

  • Carlos Esteban Posada

    ()

Abstract

Este documento describe la evolución de la tasa de desempleo urbano en Colombia en el período 1984:1 –2000:2. Incluye evidencia sobre algunas de las propiedades de las series de tiempo del mercado laboral tales como las tasas de desempleo, de ocupación y de participación. Se estiman las etapas de equilibrio y desequilibrio del mercado laboral y se establece, así, el período para el cual es válida la hipótesis de igualdad entre el componente de tendencia de la tasa de desempleo y la tasa natural. En este sentido, el documento discute la posibilidad de que el componente de tendencia haya tenido un crecimiento mayor que la tasa natural a raíz de choques cuyos efectos son bastante persistentes dada la inflexibilidad a la baja del salario real y otros costos salariales. Por ello, no se puede rechazar la hipótesis de histéresis de la tasa de desempleo. Suponiendo un crecimiento de la productividad de 1%, políticas para reducir el desempleo de 20% a 14.9%, según uno de los métodos de descomposición utilizados, no deberían tener consecuencias inflacionarias, siempre que el salario real y otros costos laborales sean flexibles a la baja. Niveles inferiores a 14.9% generarían presiones inflacionarias, a menos que disminuyan los impuestos a la nómina y mejoren los sistemas de información y adiestramiento de la fuerza laboral para lograr un mejor matching entre oferta y demanda de trabajo.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 002495.

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Length: 46
Date of creation: 31 Mar 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002495

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Keywords: Tasa de ocupación;

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References

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  1. Luis Eduardo Arango, 1999. "Componentes no observados de la inflación en Colombia," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  2. Manning, Alan, 1993. "Wage Bargaining and the Phillips Curve: The Identification and Specification of Aggregate Wage Equations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 98-118, January.
  3. Perron, P, 1988. "The Great Crash, The Oil Price Shock And The Unit Root Hypothesis," Papers 338, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  4. Harvey, A C, 1985. "Trends and Cycles in Macroeconomic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 216-27, June.
  5. Phelps, Edmund S, 2000. "Lessons in Natural-Rate Dynamics," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 51-71, January.
  6. Harvey, A C & Jaeger, A, 1993. "Detrending, Stylized Facts and the Business Cycle," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 8(3), pages 231-47, July-Sept.
  7. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1996. "What We Know and Do Not Know About the Natural Rate of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 5822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995. "Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1997. "Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number rome97-1, May.
  10. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
  12. Juan Carlos Guataqui, 2000. "Estimaciones de la tasa natural de desempleo en Colombia: una revisión," BORRADORES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 002603, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  13. Fève, Patrick & Hénin, Pierre-Yves & Jolivaldt, Philippe, 1999. "Testing for hysteresis : unemployment persistence and wage adjustment," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 9911, CEPREMAP.
  14. Brunello, Giorgio & Lupi, Claudio & Ordine, Patrizia, 2000. "Regional Disparities and the Italian NAIRU," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 146-77, January.
  15. Juan Manuel Julio, 2001. "How Uncertain are NAIRU Estimates in Colombia?," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002798, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Martha Misas & Enrique López Enciso, . "Desequilibrios Reales en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 181, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Carlos Enrique Castellar Palma, 2004. "Presente, Pedagogia Y Futuro De La Econometria," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO-CIDSE 003366, UNIVERSIDAD DEL VALLE - CIDSE.
  3. Luis Arango & Carlos Posada, 2002. "Unemployment rate and the real wage behaviour: a neoclassical hint for the Colombian labour market adjustment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(7), pages 425-428.
  4. Juan D. Barón, 2010. "Primeras experiencias laborales de los profesionales colombianos: Probabilidad de empleo formal y salarios," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO SOBRE ECONOMÍA REGIONAL 007625, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ECONOMÍA REGIONAL.
  5. José R. Gamarra, 2006. "¿Cómo se comportan las tasas de desempleo en siete ciudades colombianas?," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  6. Rodrigo Taborda & Juan Carlos Guataqui, 2003. "Firm level evidence of efficiency wages and labor turnover in Colombia's manufacturing industry," BORRADORES DE INVESTIGACIÓN 002729, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  7. Carlos Arango A. & Martha Misas A. & Enrique López, 2005. "Economía Subterránea En Colombia 1976-2003: Una Medición A Partir De La Demanda De Efectivo," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002396, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  8. Juan Barón, 2012. "First job experiences of Colombian college graduates: probability of formal employment and wages," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 76, pages 55-86.
  9. Céspedes Reynaga, Nikita, 2003. "Factores cíclicos y estructurales en la evolución de la tasa de desempleo," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 9, pages 199-221.
  10. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada & Alejandro Charry, . "La Participación Laboral en Colombia según la Nueva Encuesta: ¿Cambian sus determinantes?," Borradores de Economia 250, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  11. James Alm & Hugo López Castaño, 2002. "Payroll taxes in Colombia," WORKING PAPERS SERIES. DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO 003316, FEDESARROLLO.
  12. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, . "Unemployment Rate and the Real Wage Behavoir: A Neoclassical Hint for the Colombian Labor Market Adjustment," Borradores de Economia 180, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.

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