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Economía Subterránea En Colombia 1976-2003: Una Medición A Partir De La Demanda De Efectivo

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Arango A.
  • Martha Misas A.
  • Enrique López

Abstract

La economía subterránea (ES), definida ampliamente como aquella asociada con actividades al margen del código legal de un país, es de particular relevancia en Colombia debido al alcance que tiene la economía del narcotráfico y la economía informal evasora de la legislación fiscal y laboral. Esto es particularmente relevante no solo para el Banco Central, pues la ES tiene una ingerencia directa en la demanda de efectivo, sino también por sus implicaciones fiscales e institucionales. En este trabajo se hace una revisión crítica del estado del arte en la estimación de la ES representado en los modelos estructurales: “multiple indicators multiple causes” (MIMIC) y “dynamic multiple indicators multiple causes” (DYMIMIC). En particular, se documenta el posible sesgo de variable omitida que estos pueden presentar en su estimación y las ventajas que pueden tener representaciones más generales del tipo estado-espacio estimadas mediante filtro de Kalman. Este último enfoque es aplicado al caso colombiano donde se parte de una función de demanda de efectivo y se estima la dinámica y tamaño de la ES en el período 1976-2003. Debido a los limitados grados de libertad, se calcularon intervalos de confianza implementando “bootstrapping” para establecer la significancia de las distintas “causas” de la ES. ♣ Los autores agradecen la asistencia de Catalina Escobar, Lina Montoya y Nicolás Hernández. Igualmente se agradece la colaboración del Departamento de Economía de la Universidad Javeriana y en especial a Luisa Fernanda Bernal en la construcción de algunas de las series laborales. Asimismo, agradecemos a Ana Maria Iregui, Maria Teresa Ramírez, Leopoldo Fergusson y Luis Eduardo Arango por suministrarnos sus series para complementar la base de datos. Agradecimientos van también para los asistentes al seminario interno de la Unidad de Investigaciones por sus atinados comentarios a una versión anterior de este documento.

Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Arango A. & Martha Misas A. & Enrique López, 2005. "Economía Subterránea En Colombia 1976-2003: Una Medición A Partir De La Demanda De Efectivo," Borradores de Economia 2396, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002396
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Leopoldo Fergusson, 2003. "Tributación, Crecimiento Y Bienestar: El Caso Colombiano(1970-1999)," Documentos CEDE 3662, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
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    3. Feige, Edgar L., 1990. "Defining and estimating underground and informal economies: The new institutional economics approach," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 18(7), pages 989-1002, July.
    4. Luis Eduardo Arango T. & Carlos Esteban Posada P., 2001. "El desempleo en Colombia," Coyuntura Social 12955, Fedesarrollo.
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    Cited by:

    1. Loayza, Norman & Villa, Edgar & Misas, Martha, 2019. "Illicit activity and money laundering from an economic growth perspective: A model and an application to Colombia," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 442-487.
    2. Jorge E. Galán and & Miguel Sarmiento, 2008. "Banknote Printing at Modern central Banking: Trends, Costs and Efficiency," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 217-262, July-Dece.
    3. Branimir Jovanovic, 2015. "Kalman Filter Estimation of the Unrecorded Economy in Macedonia," Working Papers 2015-02, National Bank of the Republic of North Macedonia.
    4. Mauricio Cárdenas, 2007. "Economic growth in Colombia: A reversal of "Fortune"?," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 25(53), pages 220-259, January.
    5. Daniel MITCHELL RESTREPO, 2006. "Forecasting the Colombian Exchange Rate: Capital Adjustments and Politics vs. Traditional IRP, Trade Adjustments and Random Walk Frameworks," Archivos de Economía 11228, Departamento Nacional de Planeación.
    6. Odean B. White, 2008. "Determinants of Commercial Banks’ Cost of Financial Intermediation in Jamaica: a Maximum Likelihood Estimation Approach," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 129-159, July-Dece.
    7. Guillermo Vuletin, 2008. "What is the Size of the Pie? Measuring the Informal Economy in Latin America and the Caribbean," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 161-191, July-Dece.
    8. Vargas, Jose P Mauricio, 2012. "To be or not to be informal?: A Structural Simulation," MPRA Paper 41290, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Diana Marcela Jiménez, 2012. "La informalidad laboral en América Latina: ¿explicación estructuralista o institucionalista?," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, December.
    10. Yan Sun & Rupa Duttagupta, 2008. "Price Dynamics in the Eastern Caribbean," Money Affairs, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 193-216, July-Dece.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • D78 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Positive Analysis of Policy Formulation and Implementation
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance

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