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Choques, instituciones laborales y desempleo en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Juan José Echavarría
  • Enrique López
  • Sergio Ocampo
  • Norberto Rodríguez

Abstract

Este artículo utiliza la metodología VAR-X estructural para explicar por qué creció el desempleo en Colombia desde niveles cercanos al 7% en 1995:I hasta 19% en el 2000:I, y por qué permaneció en niveles de dos dígitos durante la década siguiente. Se trató de una combinación infortunada de choques y de instituciones laborales mal disenadas para enfrentarlos. La participación laboral se incrementó fuertemente desde comienzos de los anos noventa por motivos demográficos y como respuesta a la crisis de 1998-2000; la demanda cayó abruptamente en esos mismos anos, debido a la parada súbita de flujos de capital y a una política fiscal y monetaria procíclica; y la dinámica de laproductividad ha sido excesivamente lenta, principalmente en la década del 2000. Los costos no salariales y el salario mínimo real también han tenido un papel importante en la explicación del nivel y de la persistencia del desempleo.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López & Sergio Ocampo & Norberto Rodríguez, 2011. "Choques, instituciones laborales y desempleo en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 29(66), pages 128-173, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:010041
    DOI: 10.32468/Espe.6604
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    1. Juan José Echavarría & Andrés González, 2012. "Choques internacionales reales y financieros y su impacto sobre la economía colombiana," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 30(69), pages 14-66, December.
    2. Arango-Thomas, Luis Eduardo & García-Suaza, Andrés Felipe & Posada, Carlos Esteban, 2012. "Inflación y desempleo en Colombia : Nairu y tasa de desempleo compatible con la meta de inflación (1984-2010)," Chapters, in: Arango-Thomas, Luis Eduardo & Hamann-Salcedo, Franz Alonso (ed.), El mercado de trabajo en Colombia : hechos, tendencias e instituciones, chapter 8, pages 333-362, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Andrés González & Sergio Ocampo & Diego Rodríguez & Norberto Rodríguez, 2012. "Asimetrías del empleo y el producto, una aproximación de equilibrio general," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 30(68), pages 218-272, June.
    4. Francisco Lasso-Valderrama & Laura Rodríguez-Quintero, 2018. "Ciclo y composición del cambio en los salarios: una aproximación a la estructura salarial de Colombia," Borradores de Economia 1057, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    5. Luis E. Arango & Luz A. Flórez, 2020. "Determinants of structural unemployment in Colombia: a search approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2431-2464, May.
    6. Oscar Andrés Espinosa Acuna & Paola Andrea Vaca González, 2014. "Causas del desempleo en Colombia en el siglo XXI: Evidencia a partir de un modelo var-x cointegrado," Revista de Economía del Caribe 14770, Universidad del Norte.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    VAR-X; desempleo; salario mínimo; costos no salariales; histéresis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • J3 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs

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