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Shocks, Monetary Policy and Institutions: Explaining Unemployment Persistence in "Europe" and the United States

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Ansgar Rannenberg ()

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Abstract

This paper examines the rise in European unemployment since the 1970s by introducing endogenous growth into an otherwise standard New Keynesian model with capital accumulation and unemployment. We subject the model to an uncorrelated cost push shock, in order to mimic a scenario akin to the one faced by central banks at the end of the 1970s. Monetary policy implements a disin?ation by following an interest feedback rule calibrated to an estimate of a Bundesbank reaction function. 40 quarters after the shock has vanished, unemployment is still about 1.8 percentage points above its steady state. Our model also broadly reproduces cross country differences in unemployment by drawing on cross country di¤erences in the size of cost push shock and the associated disinflation, the monetary policy reaction function and the wage setting structure.

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Paper provided by Centre for Dynamic Macroeconomic Analysis in its series CDMA Working Paper Series with number 0903.

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Date of creation: May 2009
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Handle: RePEc:san:cdmawp:0903

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