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La Tasa de Desempleo de Largo Plazo en Colombia

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  • Luis Eduardo Arango

    ()

  • Carlos Esteban Posada

    ()

Abstract

Se estima el componente de largo plazo de la tasa de desempleo en Colombia para los últimos veinte años. De acuerdo con los resultados, los principales determinantes del componente permanente de la tasa de desempleo son el salario real por hora, los costos laborales no salariales y la tasa de acumulación de capital. Dadas las propiedades estadísticas de las variables se adoptó un enfoque de cointegración.

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Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 388.

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Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:388

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Keywords: Tasa de desempleo; costos laborales distintos del salario; acumulación de capital; cointegración;

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References

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  1. Arturo Estrella & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1999. "Rethinking the Role of NAIRU in Monetary Policy: Implications of Model Formulation and Uncertainty," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 405-436 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Ana María Iregui & Jesús Otero, . "On the Dynamics of Unemployment in a Developing Economy: Colombia," Borradores de Economia 208, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678.
  4. Francisco Javier LASSO VALDERRAMA, 2002. "Nueva metodología de Encuesta de hogares. ¿Más o menos desempleados?," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN 003282, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.
  5. Laurence Ball & N. Gregory Mankiw, 2002. "The NAIRU in Theory and Practice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 115-136, Fall.
  6. Carl E. Walsh, 1998. "The natural rate, NAIRU, and monetary policy," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue sep18.
  7. Douglas O. Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "How Precise Are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Chapters, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 195-246 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, . "Unemployment Rate and the Real Wage Behavoir: A Neoclassical Hint for the Colombian Labor Market Adjustment," Borradores de Economia 180, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  9. Jesús Antonio Bejarano Rojas, 2005. "Estimación Estructural Y Análisis De La Curva De Phillips Neokeynesiana Para Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  10. Luis Arango & Carlos Posada, 2002. "Unemployment rate and the real wage behaviour: a neoclassical hint for the Colombian labour market adjustment," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(7), pages 425-428.
  11. Juan Manuel Julio, 2001. "How Uncertain are NAIRU Estimates in Colombia?," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002798, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  12. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  13. Franco Modigliani & Lucas Papademos, 1975. "Targets for Monetary Policy in the Coming Year," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1), pages 141-166.
  14. Luis Eduardo Arango & IREGUI, Ana María & MELO, Luis F., 2006. "Recent macroeconomic performance in colombia: what went wrong?," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
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Cited by:
  1. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada & Andrés Felipe García, . "Inflación y desempleo en Colombia: NAIRU y tasa de desempleo compatible con alcanzar la meta de inflación (1984-2005)," Borradores de Economia 453, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  2. Jorge Andrés Tamayo, . "La tasa natural de desempleo en Colombia y sus determinantes," Borradores de Economia 491, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. Fabio Sánchez & Valentina Duque & Mauricio Ruíz, 2009. "Costos laborales y no laborales y su impacto sobre el desempleo, la duración del desempleo y la informalidad en Colombia, 1980-2007," DOCUMENTOS CEDE, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE 005540, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  4. Hernando Vargas, 2008. "The transmission mechanism of monetary policy in Colombia: major changes and current features," BIS Papers chapters, Bank for International Settlements, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 183-211 Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Peña, Ximena, 2013. "The formal and informal sectors in Colombia : country case study on labour market segmentation," ILO Working Papers, International Labour Organization 482088, International Labour Organization.
  6. Gustavo Hernández, 2012. "Payroll Taxes and the Labor Market: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 49(1), pages 99-123, May.
  7. Hernando Vargas H., 2007. "The Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Colombia Major Changes and Current Features," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003630, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  8. Juan José Echavarría & Enrique López & Sergio Ocampo & Norberto Rodríguez, 2011. "Choques, instituciones laborales y desempleo en Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  9. Ludek Niedermayer, 2008. "Notes on the monetary transmission mechanism in the Czech economy," BIS Papers chapters, Bank for International Settlements, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Transmission mechanisms for monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 35, pages 213-219 Bank for International Settlements.
  10. Hernando Vargas, . "The Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy in Colombia Major Changes and Current Features," Borradores de Economia 431, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  11. Gustavo Adolfo HERNANDEZ DIAZ, 2011. "Impuestos parafiscales y mercado laboral: Un análisis de Equilibrio General Computable," ARCHIVOS DE ECONOMÍA, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN 008954, DEPARTAMENTO NACIONAL DE PLANEACIÓN.

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