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Inflación y desempleo en Colombia: NAIRU y tasa de desempleo compatible con alcanzar la meta de inflación (1984-2005)

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Luis Eduardo Arango ()
Carlos Esteban Posada ()

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Abstract

Se estima una NAIRU que cambia en el tiempo de acuerdo con la composición de la fuerza laboral. Bajo este enfoque la NAIRU promedio para el período 1984- 2005 es 11,9%. Además, dada la existencia de metas de inflación, estimamos una curva de Phillips ampliada con una regla de formación de expectativas de inflación que tiene en cuenta tales metas. Esta estimación permitió calcular la “tasa de desempleo compatible con una inflación igual a la meta” (TADECIM) la cual también es cambiante en el tiempo. Su nivel promedio es 15% para el período 1911-2005.

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Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 004021.

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Length: 24
Date of creation: 09 Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:col:000094:004021

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  1. Jairo Núnez & Raquel Bernal, 1997. "El Desempleo En Colombia: Tasa Natural, Desempleo Cíclico Y Estructural Y La Duración Del Desempleo, (1976-1998)," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE. [Downloadable!]
  2. Stiglitz, Joseph, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Luis Eduardo Arango & Andrés Felipe García & Carlos Esteban Posada, . "La metodología de la Encuesta Continua de Hogares y el empalme de las series del mercado laboral urbano de Colombia," Borradores de Economia 410, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," Economics Working Paper Archive 450, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
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  5. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "La Tasa De Desempleo De Largo Plazo En Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003085, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Staiger, Douglas & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Franco Modigliani & Lucas Papademos, 1975. "Targets for Monetary Policy in the Coming Year," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1975-1), pages 141-166. [Downloadable!]
  8. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1996. "What We Know and Do Not Know About the Natural Rate of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 5822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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