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Inflación y desempleo en Colombia: NAIRU y tasa de desempleo compatible con alcanzar la meta de inflación (1984-2005)

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  • Luis Eduardo Arango

    ()

  • Carlos Esteban Posada

    ()

Abstract

Se estima una NAIRU que cambia en el tiempo de acuerdo con la composición dela fuerza laboral. Bajo este enfoque la NAIRU promedio para el período 1984-2005 es 11,9%. Además, dada la existencia de metas de inflación, estimamos unacurva de Phillips ampliada con una regla de formación de expectativas deinflación que tiene en cuenta tales metas. Esta estimación permitió calcular latasa de desempleo compatible con una inflación igual a la meta" (TADECIM) lacual también es cambiante en el tiempo. Su nivel promedio es 15% para elperíodo 1911-2005."

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA in its series BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA with number 004021.

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Length: 24
Date of creation: 09 Sep 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:col:000094:004021

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Keywords: fuerza laboral; inflación; meta de inflación; curva de Phillips; NAIRU; TADECIM.;

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References

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  1. Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 8421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
  3. Luis Eduardo Arango & Andrés Felipe García & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "La metodología de la Encuesta Continua de Hogares y el empalme de las series del mercado laboral urbano de Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003039, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  4. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1996. "What We Know and Do Not Know About the Natural Rate of Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 5822, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Jairo Núnez & Raquel Bernal, 1997. "El Desempleo En Colombia: Tasa Natural, Desempleo Cíclico Y Estructural Y La Duración Del Desempleo, (1976-1998)," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
  6. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, . "La Tasa de Desempleo de Largo Plazo en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 388, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  7. Franco Modigliani & Lucas Papademos, 1975. "Targets for Monetary Policy in the Coming Year," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1), pages 141-166.
  8. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
  9. Jesús Antonio Bejarano Rojas, 2005. "Estimación Estructural Y Análisis De La Curva De Phillips Neokeynesiana Para Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
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Cited by:
  1. Fabio Sánchez & Valentina Duque & Mauricio Ruíz, 2009. "Costos laborales y no laborales y su impacto sobre el desempleo, la duración del desempleo y la informalidad en Colombia, 1980-2007," DOCUMENTOS CEDE, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE 005540, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE.
  2. Tito Nícias Teixeira da Silva Filho, 2010. "The Natural Rate of Unemployment in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Venezuela: some results and challenges," Working Papers Series, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department 212, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.

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