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Inflación y desempleo en Colombia: NAIRU y tasa de desempleo compatible con alcanzar la meta de inflación (1984-2005)

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Abstract

Se estima una NAIRU que cambia en el tiempo de acuerdo con la composición dela fuerza laboral. Bajo este enfoque la NAIRU promedio para el período 1984-2005 es 11,9%. Además, dada la existencia de metas de inflación, estimamos unacurva de Phillips ampliada con una regla de formación de expectativas deinflación que tiene en cuenta tales metas. Esta estimación permitió calcular latasa de desempleo compatible con una inflación igual a la meta" (TADECIM) lacual también es cambiante en el tiempo. Su nivel promedio es 15% para elperíodo 1911-2005."

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2007. "Inflación y desempleo en Colombia: NAIRU y tasa de desempleo compatible con alcanzar la meta de inflación (1984-2005)," Borradores de Economia 4021, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:004021
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    1. Jairo Núnez M. & Raquel Bernal S., 1997. "El desempleo en Colombia: tasa natural, desempleo cíclico y estructural y la duración del desempleo, (1976-1998)," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 16(32), pages 7-74, December.
    2. Laurence Ball & Robert Moffitt, 2001. "Productivity Growth and the Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 8421, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Jesús Antonio Bejarano Rojas, 2005. "Estimación estructural y análisis de la curva de Phillips neokeynesiana para Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 23(48), pages 64-117, Junio.
    4. Arango Luis Eduardo & Andrés Felipe Garcia & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2008. "La metodología de la Encuesta Continua de Hogares y el empalme de las series del mercado laboral urbano de Colombia," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, May.
    5. Olivier Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1997. "What We Know and Do Not Know about the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 51-72, Winter.
    6. Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2006. "La Tasa De Desempleo De Largo Plazo En Colombia," Borradores de Economia 3085, Banco de la Republica.
    7. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
    8. Franco Modigliani & Lucas Papademos, 1975. "Targets for Monetary Policy in the Coming Year," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 6(1), pages 141-166.
    9. Joseph Stiglitz, 1997. "Reflections on the Natural Rate Hypothesis," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 3-10, Winter.
    10. Stuart E. Weiner, 1993. "New estimates of the natural rate of unemployment," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 78(Q IV), pages 53-69.
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    1. Fabio Sánchez & Valentina Duque & Mauricio Ruíz, 2009. "Costos laborales y no laborales y su impacto sobre el desempleo, la duración del desempleo y la informalidad en Colombia, 1980-2007," Documentos CEDE 5540, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fuerza laboral; inflación; meta de inflación; curva de Phillips; NAIRU; TADECIM.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J82 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Labor Standards - - - Labor Force Composition
    • E10 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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