The Natural Rate of Unemployment in Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Venezuela: some results and challenges
AbstractThis paper summarises the research results obtained by the group of central banks (Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Venezuela) that joined the research program on the Natural Rate of Unemployment – under the coordination of the Central Bank of Brazil – within the Joint Investigation on Non Observable Variables Project, and whose final results were presented at the XII Meeting of the Network of America Central Bank Researchers (CEMLA) held at Madrid in November 2007. The evidence obtained shows that the natural rate of unemployment is estimated with great uncertainty: besides sizable parameter uncertainty, estimates are very sensitive to the particular method used. This marked imprecision reflects the difficulties and challenges involved in the natural rate’s estimation. Nonetheless, the research also shows that there seems to be much room available for improvement, especially those stemming from a more careful modelling process and better care with the data, particularly regarding supply shocks proxies, given their importance in inflation dynamics. Indeed, this “channel” seems to be the most promising one to both narrow down the uncertainty about the NAIRU and improve the reliability of inferences.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department in its series Working Papers Series with number 212.
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.bcb.gov.br/?english
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-10-02 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2010-10-02 (Central Banking)
- NEP-LAM-2010-10-02 (Central & South America)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- repec:cml:incocp:1-16 is not listed on IDEAS
- Gavin, William T. & Mandal, Rachel J., 2003.
"Evaluating FOMC forecasts,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 655-667.
- Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada, 2007.
"Inflación y desempleo en Colombia: NAIRU y tasa de desempleo compatible con alcanzar la meta de inflación (1984-2005),"
BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA
004021, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
- Luis Eduardo Arango & Carlos Esteban Posada & Andrés Felipe García, . "Inflación y desempleo en Colombia: NAIRU y tasa de desempleo compatible con alcanzar la meta de inflación (1984-2005)," Borradores de Economia 453, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Benjamin Tabak).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.