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U. S. regional business cycles and the natural rate of unemployment

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Howard J. Wall
Gylfi Zoega

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Abstract

Estimates of the natural rate of unemployment are important in many macroeconomic models used by economists and policy advisors. This paper shows how such estimates might benefit from closer attention to regional developments. Regional business cycles do not move in lockstep and greater dispersion among regions can affect estimates of the natural rate of unemployment. There is microeconomic evidence that employers are more reluctant to cut wages than they are to raise them. Accordingly, this means that the relationship between wage inflation and vacancies is convex: an increase in vacancies raises wage inflation at an increasing rate. Our empirical results are consistent with this and indicate that if all else had remained constant, the reduction in the dispersion of regional unemployment rates between 1982 and 2000 would have meant a two-percentage point drop in the natural rate of aggregate unemployment.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2003-030.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Publication status: Published in Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, January/February 2004, 86(1), pp. 23-31
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2003-030

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Keywords: Unemployment ; Regional economics;

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  2. Fratantoni, Michael & Schuh, Scott, 2003. " Monetary Policy, Housing, and Heterogeneous Regional Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 557-89, August.
  3. Brainard, S Lael & Cutler, David M, 1993. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment Reconsidered," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 219-43, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. David Card & Dean Hyslop, 1996. "Does Inflation "Grease the Wheels of the Labor Market"?," NBER Working Papers 5538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. Phelps, Edmund S & Zoega, Gylfi, 1997. "The Rise and Downward Trend of the Natural Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 283-89, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1997. "Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number rome97-1.
  7. Hoon, Hian Teck & Phelps, Edmund S., 1997. "Growth, wealth and the natural rate: Is Europe's jobs crisis a growth crisis?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 549-557, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Francesconi, Marco, et al, 2000. "Education and the Natural Rate of Unemployment," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 204-23, January.
  9. Edmund S. Phelps, 1968. "Money-Wage Dynamics and Labor-Market Equilibrium," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 76, pages 678. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Lilien, David M, 1982. "Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 777-93, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Kenneth J. McLaughlin, 1999. "Are nominal wage changes skewed away from wage cuts?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 117-132. [Downloadable!]
  12. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Business cycle phases in U.S. states," Working Papers 2003-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1996. "How Precise are Estimates of the Natural Rate of Unemployment?," NBER Working Papers 5477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Gerald Carlino & Keith Sill, 2001. "Regional Income Fluctuations: Common Trends And Common Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(3), pages 446-456, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Gerald Carlino & Robert Defina, 1998. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 572-587, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Henry G. Overman & Diego Puga, 2002. "Unemployment clusters across Europe's regions and countries," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 17(34), pages 115-148, 04. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Abraham, Katharine G & Katz, Lawrence F, 1986. "Cyclical Unemployment: Sectoral Shifts or Aggregate Disturbances?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(3), pages 507-22, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Michael T. Owyang & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Structural breaks and regional disparities in the transmission of monetary policy," Working Papers 2003-008, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  19. Michael Woodford, 1994. "Structural Slumps," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1784-1815, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Luca Bindelli, 2005. "Systematic monetary policy and persistence," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 05.07, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP. [Downloadable!]
  2. Michael T. Owyang & David E. Rapach & Howard J. Wall, 2008. "States and the business cycle," Working Papers 2007-050, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Hiroshi Fujiki & Howard J. Wall, 2006. "Controlling for geographic dispersion when estimating the Japanese Phillips curve," Working Papers 2006-057, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Jürgen Kromphardt & Camille Logeay, 2007. "Changes in the Balance of Power Between the Wage and Price Setters and the Central Bank: Consequences for the Phillips Curve and the NAIRU," Kiel Working Papers 1354, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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