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Structural breaks and regional disparities in the transmission of monetary policy

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Michael T. Owyang
Howard J. Wall

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Abstract

Using a regional VAR, we find large differences in the effects of monetary policy shocks across regions of the United States. We also find that the region-level effects of monetary policy differ a great deal between the pre-Volcker and Volcker-Greenspan periods in terms of their depth and length. The two sample periods also yield very different rankings of the regions in terms of the effects of monetary policy. Our regional VAR also suggests that aggregate VARs that ignore regional variations can suffer from severe aggregation bias. We use the results of our regional VAR to find evidence that recession depth related to the banking concentration and that the total cost of recession is related to the industry mix. Finally, we demonstrate that the differences between the two sample periods are due to changes in the mechanism by which monetary policy shocks are propagated.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2003-008.

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Date of creation: 2004
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2003-008

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Keywords: Monetary policy ; Regional economics ; Economic conditions;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Fratantoni, Michael & Schuh, Scott, 2003. " Monetary Policy, Housing, and Heterogeneous Regional Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(4), pages 557-89, August.
  3. Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure," CEPR Discussion Papers 2137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Anil K. Kashyap & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "What Do a Million Observations on Banks Say about the Transmission of Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(3), pages 407-428, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bagliano, Fabio C. & Favero, Carlo A., 1998. "Measuring monetary policy with VAR models: An evaluation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(6), pages 1069-1112, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Ben S. Bernanke, 1993. "Credit in the macroeconomy," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Spr, pages 50-70.
  7. Gerald Carlino & Robert DeFina, 1997. "The differential regional effects of monetary policy: evidence from the U.S. States," Working Papers 97-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Gertler, Mark & Gilchrist, Simon, 1994. "Monetary Policy, Business Cycles, and the Behavior of Small Manufacturing Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 109(2), pages 309-40, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Quah, Danny T, 1996. "Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(1), pages 137-59.
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  12. Ilian Mihov, 2001. "Monetary policy implementation and transmission in the European Monetary Union," Economic Policy, CEPR, CES, MSH, vol. 16(33), pages 369-406, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Rich, Robert W, 2001. "Structural Estimates of the U.S. Sacrifice Ratio," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(4), pages 416-27, October.
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  14. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1995. "Distinguishing theories of the monetary transmission mechanism," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 83-97. [Downloadable!]
  15. Gerald Carlino & Keith Sill, 2001. "Regional Income Fluctuations: Common Trends And Common Cycles," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(3), pages 446-456, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Gerald Carlino & Robert Defina, 1998. "The Differential Regional Effects Of Monetary Policy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 572-587, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The persistence of inflation and the cost of disinflation," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Jan, pages 3-16. [Downloadable!]
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  20. Hoover, Kevin D. & Perez, Stephen J., 1994. "Post hoc ergo propter once more an evaluation of 'does monetary policy matter?' in the spirit of James Tobin," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 47-74, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  21. Mork, Knut Anton, 1989. "Oil and Macroeconomy When Prices Go Up and Down: An Extension of Hamilton's Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(3), pages 740-44, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Kashyap, Anil K. & Stein, Jeremy C., 1995. "The impact of monetary policy on bank balance sheets," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 151-195, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  23. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1988. "Credit, Money, and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 435-39, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 2001. "Is the United States an optimum currency area? an empirical analysis of regional business cycles," Working Paper Series WP-01-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. [Downloadable!]
  25. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  26. Ellen E. Meade & D. Nathan Sheets, 2002. "Regional influences on U.S. monetary policy: some implications for Europe," International Finance Discussion Papers 721, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Theodore M. Crone, 2003. "An alternative definition of economic regions in the U.S. based on similarities in state business cycles," Working Papers 03-23, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. [Downloadable!]
  2. Howard J. Wall & Gylfi Zoega, 2003. "U. S. regional business cycles and the natural rate of unemployment," Working Papers 2003-030, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  3. Ridhwan, M.M. & Nijkamp, P. & Rietveld, P. & Groot, H.L.F. de, 2008. "Regional development and monetary policy : a review of the role of monetary unions, capital mobility and locational effects," Serie Research Memoranda 0007, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics. [Downloadable!]
  4. Michael S. Hanson & Erik Hurst & Ki Young Park, 2006. "Does Monetary Policy Help Least Those Who Need It Most?," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2006-006, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  5. Michael T. Owyang & Jeremy M. Piger & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Business cycle phases in U.S. states," Working Papers 2003-011, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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