IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ebl/ecbull/eb-13-00486.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Analysis of Okun's Law, the Natural Rate, and Voting Preferences for the 50 States

Author

Listed:
  • Ryan W Herzog

    (Gonzaga University)

Abstract

In this paper we test Okun's Law for individuals states from 1990 through 2012. We find the relationship between output and unemployment becomes stronger following the 2007 Great Recession. For most states the impact of a change in output on unemployment has increased and in many cases the two-to-one relationship has shifted to a three-to-two relationship. Further, we also find for most states the natural rate of unemployment has increased. We use average employment ratios by major industries to explain differences in Okun's Law across states. We find a stronger Okun effect for states with relatively large employment in professional and business services, construction, and manufacturing. Finally, we find a significant correlation between states that lean more Democrat with a stronger Okun effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan W Herzog, 2013. "An Analysis of Okun's Law, the Natural Rate, and Voting Preferences for the 50 States," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2504-2517.
    • Handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-13-00486
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.accessecon.com/Pubs/EB/2013/Volume33/EB-13-V33-I4-P236.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael T. Owyang & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2012. "Okun’s law over the business cycle: was the great recession all that different?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 399-418.
    2. Freeman, Donald G, 2001. "Panel Tests of Okun's Law for Ten Industrial Countries," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 511-523, October.
    3. Howard J. Wall & Gylfi Zoega, 2004. "U. S. regional business cycles and the natural rate of unemployment," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 86(Jan), pages 23-32.
    4. Julien Fouquau, 2008. "Threshold effects in Okun's Law: a panel data analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(33), pages 1-14.
    5. Laurence Ball & Daniel Leigh & Prakash Loungani, 2017. "Okun's Law: Fit at 50?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(7), pages 1413-1441, October.
    6. Adolfo Maza & José Villaverde, 2007. "Okun's law in the Spanish regions," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 18(5), pages 1-11.
    7. Roger Perman & Christophe Tavera, 2005. "A cross-country analysis of the Okun's Law coefficient convergence in Europe," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(21), pages 2501-2513.
    8. Villaverde, José & Maza, Adolfo, 2009. "The robustness of Okun's law in Spain, 1980-2004: Regional evidence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 289-297.
    9. Binet Marie-estelle & Francois Facchini, 2013. "Okun's law in the french regions: a cross-regional comparison," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(1), pages 420-433.
    10. Lee, Jim, 2000. "The Robustness of Okun's Law: Evidence from OECD Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 331-356, April.
    11. Justin Weidner & John C. Williams, 2011. "What is the new normal unemployment rate?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue feb14.
    12. Mary C. Daly & Bart Hobijn, 2010. "Okun’s law and the unemployment surprise of 2009," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue mar8.
    13. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Ho-Chuan (River) Huang & Chih-Chuan Yeh, 2013. "Okun's law in panels of countries and states," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(2), pages 191-199, January.
    15. Marie-Estelle Binet & François Facchini, 2013. "Okun's Law in the French Regions: A Cross-Regional Comparison," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-00812549, HAL.
    16. Brian Silverstone & Richard Harris, 2001. "Testing for asymmetry in Okun's law: A cross-country comparison," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(2), pages 1-13.
    17. Attfield, Clifford L. F. & Silverstone, Brian, 1998. "Okun's Law, Cointegration and Gap Variables," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 625-637, July.
    18. Theodore M. Crone & Alan Clayton-Matthews, 2005. "Consistent Economic Indexes for the 50 States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 593-603, November.
    19. Edward S. Knotek, 2007. "How useful is Okun's law?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 92(Q IV), pages 73-103.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Durech, Richard & Minea, Alexandru & Mustea, Lavinia & Slusna, Lubica, 2014. "Regional evidence on Okun's Law in Czech Republic and Slovakia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 57-65.
    2. Ryan Herzog, 2013. "Using state level employment thresholds to explain Okun’s Law," IZA Journal of Labor Policy, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 2(1), pages 1-26, December.
    3. Porras-Arena, M. Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2023. "The heterogeneity of Okun's law: A metaregression analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    4. Elhorst, J. Paul & Emili, Silvia, 2022. "A spatial econometric multivariate model of Okun's law," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    5. Bande, Roberto & Martín-Román, Ángel, 2018. "Regional differences in the Okun’s Relationship: New Evidence for Spain (1980-2015)," INVESTIGACIONES REGIONALES - Journal of REGIONAL RESEARCH, Asociación Española de Ciencia Regional, issue 41, pages 137-165.
    6. Antal, Miklós, 2014. "Green goals and full employment: Are they compatible?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 276-286.
    7. Abdessalem GOUIDER & Ridha NOUIRA & Faouzi SBOUI, 2018. "La relation croissance-chômage en Tunisie : validation de la spécification non linéaire de la loi d’Okun," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 47, pages 27-41.
    8. Ousama Ben-Salha & Zouhair Mrabet, 2019. "Is Economic Growth Really Jobless? Empirical Evidence from North Africa," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(4), pages 598-624, December.
    9. Costas KARFAKIS & Constantinos KATRAKILIDIS & Eftychia TSANANA, 2014. "Does output predict unemployment? A look at Okun's law in Greece," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 153(3), pages 421-433, September.
    10. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Ali Gul Khushik & Muhammad Akram Gilal & Zhao Yongliang, 2021. "The Impact of GDP and Its Expenditure Components on Unemployment Within BRICS Countries: Evidence of Okun’s Law From Aggregate and Disaggregated Approaches," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, June.
    11. Thomas Obst, 2022. "Dynamic version of Okun’s law in the EU15 countries—The role of delays in the unemployment‐output nexus," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 69(2), pages 225-241, May.
    12. Celia Melguizo, 2017. "An analysis of Okun’s law for the Spanish provinces," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 37(1), pages 59-90, February.
    13. Roger Perman & Gaetan Stephan & Christophe Tavéra, 2015. "Okun's Law—a Meta-analysis," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83(1), pages 101-126, January.
    14. Aki Kangasharju & Christophe Tavera & Peter Nijkamp, 2012. "Regional Growth and Unemployment: The Validity of Okun's Law for the Finnish Regions," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(3), pages 381-395, September.
    15. Rui Pereira, 2014. "Okun’s law, asymmetries and regional spillovers: evidence from Virginia metropolitan statistical areas and the District of Columbia," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 52(2), pages 583-595, March.
    16. Celia Melguizo Cháfer, 2015. "“An analysis of the Okun’s law for the Spanish provinces”," AQR Working Papers 201501, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jan 2015.
    17. Porras-Arena, M. Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2019. "Self-employment and the Okun's law," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 253-265.
    18. Guisinger, Amy Y. & Hernandez-Murillo, Ruben & Owyang, Michael T. & Sinclair, Tara M., 2018. "A state-level analysis of Okun's law," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 239-248.
    19. Kim, Jun & Yoon, Jong Cheol & Jei, Sang Young, 2020. "An empirical analysis of Okun’s laws in ASEAN using time-varying parameter model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    20. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2017. "Did Okun’s law die after the Great Recession?," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 52(4), pages 216-226, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Okun's Law; United States; Natural Rate; Output; Regional;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • R1 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-13-00486. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: John P. Conley (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.