Okun's Law, Asymmetries and Regional Spillovers: Evidence from Virginia Metropolitan Statistical Areas and the District of Columbia
AbstractThe purpose of this paper is to examine the strength of the relationship between unemployment and GDP, the extent to which this relationship has been stable in Virginia metropolitan statistical areas (MSA) during the Great Recession and to examine the importance of regional spillovers in Okun’s law. Our results suggest that regional spillovers are very important in local labor markets and in defining the relationship observed at the national level. The MSA level data further supports asymmetries in Okun's law. The weaker direct relationship between GDP and unemployment at the local level suggests that while federal fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate aggregate demand during periods of economic recovery may be effective, over time, in reducing the unemployment rate, local economic development policies are not effective in achieving the substantial short term reduction in unemployment needed during recovery. The strong business cycle effects observed in the state MSA, relative to the U.S., suggests that countercyclical policies are fundamentally important and should be targeted more generally to exploit regional spillovers.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, College of William and Mary in its series Working Papers with number 140.
Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 26 Mar 2014
Date of revision:
Okun's law; the Great Recession; Regional Spillovers; Panel Unit Root Test with Structural Breaks; Panel Spatial Durbin Model.;
Other versions of this item:
- Rui Pereira, 2014. "Okun’s law, asymmetries and regional spillovers: evidence from Virginia metropolitan statistical areas and the District of Columbia," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 583-595, March.
- C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- J01 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - General - - - Labor Economics: General
- R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2013-06-16 (All new papers)
- NEP-PBE-2013-06-16 (Public Economics)
- NEP-URE-2013-06-16 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
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