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Okun's Law, Asymmetries and Jobless Recoveries in the United States: A Markov-Switching Approach

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Author Info
Mark J. Holmes () (University of Waikato)
Brian Silverstone () (University of Waikato)

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Abstract

This paper offers a new perspective on Markov regime-switching approaches to asymmetries in Okun’s law by modeling the existing approaches as special cases. Prevailing models assume either asymmetry between unemployment and output across regimes or asymmetry within a single regime. Our specification combines both approaches. Our empirical results give an insight into the apparent ‘jobless recovery’ experiences that began in the United States in 1991 and 2001.

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File URL: ftp://mngt.waikato.ac.nz/RePEc/wai/econwp/0506.pdf
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Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Waikato, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 05/06.

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Length: 11 pages
Date of creation: 08 Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wai:econwp:05/06

Note: Now published: 'Economics Letters' 92(2) August 2006, pp.293-99.
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Web page: http://www.mngt.waikato.ac.nz/econ
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Related research
Keywords: Okun’s law; Markov-switching; asymmetry; jobless recoveries; United States;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Paramsothy Silvapulle & Imad Moosa & Mervyn Silvapulle, 2004. "Asymmetry in Okun's law," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 353-374, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Richard Harris & Brian Silverstone, 2001. "Testing for asymmetry in Okun's law: A cross-country comparison," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 5, pages 1-13. [Downloadable!]
  3. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Daniel Aaronson & Ellen Rissman & Daniel G. Sullivan, 2004. "Assessing the jobless recovery," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 2-21. [Downloadable!]
  5. Moosa, Imad A., 1997. "A Cross-Country Comparison of Okun's Coefficient," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 335-356, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Kathryn Koenders & Richard Rogerson, 2005. "Organizational dynamics over the business cycle: a view on jobless recoveries," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 555-580. [Downloadable!]
  7. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, 2003. "Okun's Law Revisited," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(4), pages 439-451, 09. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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