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Okun's Law, Asymmetries and Jobless Recoveries in the United States: A Markov-Switching Approach

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Abstract

This paper offers a new perspective on Markov regime-switching approaches to asymmetries in Okun’s law by modeling the existing approaches as special cases. Prevailing models assume either asymmetry between unemployment and output across regimes or asymmetry within a single regime. Our specification combines both approaches. Our empirical results give an insight into the apparent ‘jobless recovery’ experiences that began in the United States in 1991 and 2001.

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File URL: ftp://mngt.waikato.ac.nz/RePEc/wai/econwp/0506.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Waikato, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers in Economics with number 05/06.

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Length: 11 pages
Date of creation: 08 Dec 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wai:econwp:05/06

Note: Now published: 'Economics Letters' 92(2) August 2006, pp.293-99.
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Keywords: Okun’s law; Markov-switching; asymmetry; jobless recoveries; United States;

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References

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  1. Brian Silverstone & Richard Harris, 2001. "Testing for asymmetry in Okun's law: A cross-country comparison," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(2), pages 1-13.
  2. Kathryn Koenders & Richard Rogerson, 2005. "Organizational dynamics over the business cycle: a view on jobless recoveries," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 555-580.
  3. Paramsothy Silvapulle & Imad Moosa & Mervyn Silvapulle, 2004. "Asymmetry in Okun's law," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 353-374, May.
  4. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  5. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, 2003. "Okun's Law Revisited," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(4), pages 439-451, 09.
  6. Moosa, Imad A., 1997. "A Cross-Country Comparison of Okun's Coefficient," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 335-356, June.
  7. Daniel Aaronson & Ellen Rissman & Daniel G. Sullivan, 2004. "Assessing the jobless recovery," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 2-21.
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Cited by:
  1. Afþin Þahin & Aysýt Tansel & M. Hakan Berument, 2013. "Output-Employment Relationship Across Sectors: A Long- Versus Short-Run Perspective," Working Papers 2013/9, Turkish Economic Association.
  2. Jochen Hartwig, 2014. "Testing Okun’s Law with Swiss Industry Data," KOF Working papers 14-357, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  3. Rui Pereira, 2014. "Okun’s law, asymmetries and regional spillovers: evidence from Virginia metropolitan statistical areas and the District of Columbia," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 52(2), pages 583-595, March.
  4. Juan Urquiza, 2011. "Income Asymmetries and the Permanent Income Hypothesis," Documentos de Trabajo 409, Instituto de Economia. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile..
  5. Hutengs, Oliver & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Age effects in the Okun's law within the Eurozone," Discussion Papers 322, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
  6. Rui M. Pereira, 2013. "Okun's Law across the Business Cycle and during the Great Recession: A Markov Switching Analysis," Working Papers 139, Department of Economics, College of William and Mary.
  7. Oliver Hutengs & Georg Stadtmann, 2012. "Age Effects in the Okun's Law within the Eurozone," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1243, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  8. M. Yazgan & Hakan Yilmazkuday, 2009. "Okun’s convergence within the US," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 109-122, October.

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