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La legge di Okun: asimmetrie e differenziali territoriali in Italia

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  • Giovanni BUSETTA

    ()
    (Universit… di Napoli "Parthenope")

  • Dario CORSO

    ()
    (Universit… degli Studi di Palermo, Centro Interdipartimentale per la Ricerca e il Monitoraggio, dell'Economia e del Territorio)

Abstract

[ABSTRACT] Okun's law turns out from the relationship between economic growth and unemployment fluctuations of the American economy during the sixties. Following his results several analyses tried to test the empirical relevance of the relation, initially estimated by Okun, for different countries and historical periods. Generally, authors found heterogeneous results in estimating Okun's coefficient, depending on the sample and context analylised. Moreover, recent analyses focused on the influence exerted by asymmetric components on the relation between output growth and unemployment rate. In this paper we propose an application regarding the Italian regions. In particular, we perform a panel analysis in order to estimate the influence of asymmetry and local market differences on Okun's relationship. Moreover, observing particularly low values of participation rate on labor market in southern areas, we propose other indicators more compatible with a delayed development area to estimate Okun's coefficient. [SOMMARIO] La legge di Okun consiste in una relazione empirica che lega le variazioni del tasso di disoccupazione alle variazioni nei tassi di crescita del PIL reale. L'interesse rivolto dalla letteratura economica nei confronti di tale relazione deriva dalle sue implicazioni in termini di politiche macroeconomiche. Molti lavori hanno verificato tale relazione in contesti spazio-temporali differenti. Ne Š emersa una certa variazione del coefficiente stimato, sia in relazione ai diversi orizzonti temporali, che al variare del contesto spaziale di riferimento In aggiunta, soprattutto i lavori piu' recenti hanno concentrato l'attenzione sulla eventuale presenza di componenti asimmetriche nella relazione. L'obiettivo della presente analisi consiste nel verificare la validita' della legge di Okun in Italia a livello sub nazionale, valutando contemporaneamente gli effetti della suddetta componente asimmetrica. Alla base di tale verifica risiede, infatti, l'ipotesi che in Italia siano presenti alcuni di quegli aspetti che lo stesso Okun indicava come probabili cause di una modifica dei risultati ottenuti dalle stime e soprattutto che le diversita', tipiche dei due mercati subnazionali del lavoro, possano condurre a stime significativamente diverse per il Centro-Nord e per il Mezzogiorno.

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Paper provided by Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali in its series Working Papers with number 320.

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Length: 27
Date of creation: May 2008
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Handle: RePEc:anc:wpaper:320

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Cited by:
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  2. Lenzu, Simone & Tedeschi, Gabriele, 2012. "Systemic risk on different interbank network topologies," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(18), pages 4331-4341.
  3. Elena AMBROSETTI & Eralba CELA & Tineke FOKKEMA, 2011. "The Remittances Behaviour of the Second Generation in Europe: Altruism or Self-Interest?," Working Papers 368, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  4. Ruggero GRILLI & Gabriele TEDESCHI & Mauro GALLEGATI, 2012. "Markets connectivity and financial contagion," Working Papers 382, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  5. Alessandro STERLACCHINI, 2012. "Patent Oppositions as Competitive Tools: An Analysis of the Major Players in the European Market of White Goods," Working Papers 374, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  6. Luca RICCETTI, 2011. "A Copula-GARCH Model for Macro Asset Allocation of a Portfolio with Commodities: an Out-of-Sample Analysis," Working Papers 355, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  7. Eralba CELA & Tineke FOKKEMA & Elena AMBROSETTI, 2012. "Links Between Transnationalism Integration and Duration of Residence: The Case of eastern European Migrants in Italy," Working Papers 386, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  8. Luca RICCETTI, 2010. "Minimum Tracking Error Volatility," Working Papers 340, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  9. Fabio FIORILLO & Agnese SACCHI, 2010. "I Want to Free-ride. An Opportunistic View on Decentralization Versus Centralization Problem," Working Papers 346, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  10. Ugo FRATESI, 2010. "The National and International Effects;of Regional Policy Choices: Agglomeration Economies, Peripherality and Territorial Characteristics," Working Papers 344, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.

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