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Okun's Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates

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Author Info
Prachowny, Martin F J

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Abstract

Okun's Law has been accepted as an empirical regularity that predicts a 3 percentage point increase in output for every 1 point reduction in the unemployment rate, but only because other facts, such as weekly hours, induced labor supply and productivity tend to rise as well. When output gaps are estimated for the U.S. economy with a production-function approach, using two different data sets for potential output and NAIRU, it is found that the marginal contribution of a 1 point reduction in unemployment is only about two-thirds percent increase in output. Changes in weekly hours and capacity utilization have independent effects on the output gap. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics & Statistics.

Volume (Year): 75 (1993)
Issue (Month): 2 (May)
Pages: 331-36
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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:75:y:1993:i:2:p:331-36

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  1. Richard Harris & Brian Silverstone, 2000. "Asymmetric Adjustment of Unemployment and Output in New Zealand: Rediscovering Okun's Law," Working Papers in Economics 00/02, University of Waikato, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  2. Matteo Richiardi, 2006. "Toward a Non-Equilibrium Unemployment Theory," Computational Economics, Springer, vol. 28(4), pages 421-446, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Josep M. Colomer, 2007. "What other sciences look like," Economics Working Papers 1017, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra. [Downloadable!]
  4. Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Roberto Gabriele, 2004. "Towards an Evolutionary Interpretation of Aggregate Labor Market Regularities," LEM Papers Series 2004/02, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Michel Beine & Alain Hecq, 1999. "Inference in Codependence : Some Monte Carlo Results and Applications," Annales d'Economie et de Statistique, ADRES, issue 54, pages 04, Avril-Jui. [Downloadable!]
  6. Ian H.K. Leow, 2004. "A Simple Dynamic Model of Big-push," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 218, Econometric Society. [Downloadable!]
  7. David Mayes & Matti Viren, 2002. "Asymmetry and the Problem of Aggregation in the Euro Area," Empirica, Springer, vol. 29(1), pages 47-73, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Matti Virén, 2000. "Cross-country Evidence on a Nonlinear Okun Curve," Discussion Papers 239, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT). [Downloadable!]
  9. Hubert Gabrisch & Herbert Buscher, 2006. "The Relationship between Unemployment and Output in Post-communist Countries," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 18(3), pages 261-276, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Elhorst, J. Paul, 2000. "The Mystery Of Regional Unemployment Differentialsa Survey Of Theoretical And Empirical Explanations," ERSA conference papers ersa00p60, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
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  11. Vincent BODART & Philippe LEDENT & Fatemeh SHADMAN-METHA, 2009. "An Employment Equation for Belgium," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2009016, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES). [Downloadable!]
  12. PERUGINI, Cristiano, 2009. "Employment Intensity Of Growth In Italy. A Note Using Regional Data," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1). [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. Joao Ricardo Faria & Juan Carlos Cuestas & Estefania Mourelle, 2008. "Entrepreneurship and unemployment: a nonlinear bidirectional causality," Working Papers 2008/6, Nottingham Trent University, Nottingham Business School, Economics Division. [Downloadable!]
  14. Mayes , David G. & Virén , Matti, 2004. "Asymmetries in the Euro area economy," Research Discussion Papers 9/2004, Bank of Finland. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Reinhold Kosfeld & Christian Dreger, 2005. "Thresholds for Employment and Unemployment - a Spatial Analysis of German Regional Labour Markets 1992-2000," ERSA conference papers ersa05p39, European Regional Science Association. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Edward S. Knotek & II, 2007. "How useful is Okun's law?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 73-103. [Downloadable!]
  17. Kari Alho, 2002. "Catching Up and Unemployment in the EU," Discussion Papers 762, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. [Downloadable!]
  18. João Sousa Andrade, 2007. "Uma Aplicação da Lei de Okun em Portugal," GEMF Working Papers 2007-04, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra. [Downloadable!]
  19. João Sousa Andrade, 2009. "The PIGS, does the Group Exist? An empirical macroeconomic analysis based on the Okun Law," GEMF Working Papers 2009-11, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra. [Downloadable!]
  20. Mark S Astley & Tony Yates, . "Inflation and real disequilibria," Bank of England working papers 103, Bank of England. [Downloadable!]
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