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Does output predict unemployment? A look at Okun's law in Greece

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  • Costas KARFAKIS
  • Constantinos KATRAKILIDIS
  • Eftychia TSANANA

Abstract

Using a dynamic specification of Okun's law, the authors examine the relationship between unemployment and output in Greece over the period 2000–12. While Granger causality tests indicate that real output is important to understanding future movements in unemployment, Okun's ratio is found to be 3:1, implying that a 1 per cent increase in unemployment was associated with a 3 per cent decrease in real output during the 13-year period under study. Also, asymmetric analysis shows that the response of unemployment to real output is stronger during contractions of real economic activity than in expansionary periods.

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  • Costas KARFAKIS & Constantinos KATRAKILIDIS & Eftychia TSANANA, 2014. "Does output predict unemployment? A look at Okun's law in Greece," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 153(3), pages 421-433, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:intlab:v:153:y:2014:i:3:p:421-433
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    Cited by:

    1. Porras-Arena, M. Sylvina & Martín-Román, Ángel L., 2023. "The heterogeneity of Okun's law: A metaregression analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    2. Matiur Rahman & Muhammad Mustafa, 2017. "Okun’s law: evidence of 13 selected developed countries," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(2), pages 297-310, April.
    3. Stungwa, Sanele & Tozamile, Siphuxolo, 2021. "Testing Okun’s law in South Africa," MPRA Paper 110936, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Muhammad Azam & Faisal Khan & Khalid Zaman & Amran Md. Rasli, 2016. "Military Expenditures and Unemployment Nexus for Selected South Asian Countries," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 1103-1117, July.
    5. Vassilis Monastiriotis & Angelo Martelli, 2021. "Crisis, Adjustment and Resilience in the Greek Labor Market: An Unemployment Decomposition Approach," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 44(1), pages 85-112, January.
    6. Miquel Clar-Lopez & Jordi López-Tamayo & Raúl Ramos, 2014. "Unemployment forecasts, time varying coefficient models and the Okun’s law in Spanish regions," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 247-262.
    7. Koutroulis, Aristotelis & Panagopoulos, Yannis & Tsouma, Ekaterini, 2016. "Asymmetry in the response of unemployment to output changes in Greece: Evidence from hidden co-integration," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 81-88.
    8. Costas KARFAKIS & Constantinos KATRAKILIDIS & Eftychia TSANANA, 2014. "Does output predict unemployment? A look at Okun's law in Greece," International Labour Review, International Labour Organization, vol. 153(3), pages 421-433, September.
    9. Monastiriotis, Vassilis & Martelli, Angelo, 2021. "Crisis, adjustment and resilience in the Greek labor market: an unemployment decomposition approach," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 107048, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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