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Okun's Law Revisited

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  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma

Abstract

In the light of modern theoretical studies, the negative relationship between output and unemployment may take a nonlinear form, in the sense that changes in output can cause asymmetric changes in the unemployment rate. A regime‐dependent specification of Okun's law, where the inverse relationship between cyclical unemployment and cyclical GDP is allowed to differ across recessions and expansions, is estimated for the US economy. Using both the Hodrick–Prescott filter and a bivariate structural time series model to isolate the cyclical component of the variables of interest, the nonlinear specification is highly significant when tested against the linear alternative independently of the method used for extracting the cycle of unemployment and GDP. The estimation results imply that the contemporaneous effect of growth on unemployment is asymmetric and significantly higher in recessions than in expansions, and shocks to unemployment tend to be more persistent in the expansionary regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesús Crespo Cuaresma, 2003. "Okun's Law Revisited," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(4), pages 439-451, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:65:y:2003:i:4:p:439-451
    DOI: 10.1111/1468-0084.t01-1-00056
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    1. Benos, Nikos & Stavrakoudis, Athanassios, 2022. "Okun's law: Copula-based evidence from G7 countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 478-491.
    2. Holmes, Mark J. & Silverstone, Brian, 2006. "Okun's law, asymmetries and jobless recoveries in the United States: A Markov-switching approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 293-299, August.
    3. PERUGINI, Cristiano, 2009. "Employment Intensity Of Growth In Italy. A Note Using Regional Data," Regional and Sectoral Economic Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
    4. João Sousa Andrade, 2007. "Uma Aplicação da Lei de Okun em Portugal," GEMF Working Papers 2007-04, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    5. Ho-Chuan (River) Huang & Chih-Chuan Yeh, 2013. "Okun's law in panels of countries and states," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(2), pages 191-199, January.
    6. Matteo Lanzafame, 2010. "The endogeneity of the natural rate of growth in the regions of Italy," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 533-552.
    7. Edward S. Knotek, 2007. "How useful is Okun's law?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 92(Q IV), pages 73-103.
    8. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Matteo Lanzafame, 2010. "The Endogenous Nature of the ‘Natural’ Rate of Growth," Chapters, in: Mark Setterfield (ed.), Handbook of Alternative Theories of Economic Growth, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    9. Jorge Belaire-Franch & Amado Peiró, 2015. "Asymmetry in the relationship between unemployment and the business cycle," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 683-697, March.
    10. Stefan Marth, 2015. "How Strong is the Correlation Between Unemployment and Growth Really? The Persistence of Okun's Law and How to Weaken it. WWWforEurope Policy Paper No. 23," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58260, February.
    11. Ian H.K. Leow, 2004. "A Simple Dynamic Model of Big-push," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 218, Econometric Society.
    12. Ousama Ben-Salha & Zouhair Mrabet, 2019. "Is Economic Growth Really Jobless? Empirical Evidence from North Africa," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(4), pages 598-624, December.

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