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Local deficits and local jobs: can U.S. statess stabilize their own economies?

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  • Gerald A. Carlino
  • Robert P. Inman

Abstract

Using a sample of the 48 mainland U.S. states for the period 1973-2009, we study the ability of U.S. states to expand their own state employment through the use of state deficit policies. The analysis allows for the facts that U.S. states are part of a wider monetary and economic union with free factor mobility across all states and that state residents and firms may purchase goods from ?neighboring? states. Those purchases may generate economic spillovers across neighbors. Estimates suggest that states can increase their own state employment by increasing their own deficits. There is evidence of spillovers to employment in neighboring states defined by common cyclical patterns among state economies. For large states, aggregate spillovers to its economic neighbors are approximately two-thirds of the large state?s job growth. Because of significant spillovers and possible incentives to free-ride, there is a potential case to actively coordinate (i.e., centralize) the management of stabilization policies. Finally, when these deficits are scheduled for repayment the job effects of a temporary increase in state own deficits persist for at most one to two years and there is evidence of a negative impact of state jobs.

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  • Gerald A. Carlino & Robert P. Inman, 2013. "Local deficits and local jobs: can U.S. statess stabilize their own economies?," Working Papers 13-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:13-11
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    Cited by:

    1. Joe A. Stone, 2016. "Do Balanced-Budget Rules Increase Growth?," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(1), pages 79-89, January.
    2. Gerald Carlino & Robert P. Inman, 2016. "Fiscal Stimulus in Economic Unions: What Role for States?," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 30(1), pages 1-50.
    3. Gerald A. Carlino & Robert P. Inman, 2013. "Macro fiscal policy in economic unions: states as agents," Working Papers 13-40, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    4. Neville Francis & Laura E. Jackson & Michael T. Owyang, 2018. "Countercyclical Policy and the Speed of Recovery after Recessions," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 50(4), pages 675-704, June.
    5. Rui Pereira, 2014. "Okun’s law, asymmetries and regional spillovers: evidence from Virginia metropolitan statistical areas and the District of Columbia," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 52(2), pages 583-595, March.
    6. Gerald Carlino & Nicholas Zarra & Robert Inman & Thorsten Drautzburg, 2019. "Fiscal Policy in Monetary Unions: State Partisanship and its Macroeconomic Effects," 2019 Meeting Papers 434, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Matthias Uhl, 2014. "State Fiscal Policies and Regional Economic Activity," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201446, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    8. Virkola, Tuomo, 2014. "Fiscal Federalism in Four Federal Countries," ETLA Reports 38, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    9. Gerald Carlino & Thorsten Drautzburg & Robert Inman & Nicholas Zarra, 2023. "Partisanship and Fiscal Policy in Economic Unions: Evidence from US States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(3), pages 701-737, March.
    10. Chodorow-Reich, Gabriel, 2020. "Regional data in macroeconomics: Some advice for practitioners," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    11. Carlino, Gerald & Drautzburg, Thorsten & Inman, Robert & Zarra, Nicholas, 2020. "Partisanship and Fiscal Policy in Federal Unions: Evidence from US States," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224550, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    12. Nathaniel P. S. Cook & Jason C. Jones, 2021. "The African Growth and Opportunity Act and growth in sub‐Saharan Africa: A local projection approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 234-261, January.
    13. Falilou Fall & Debra Bloch & Jean-Marc Fournier & Peter Hoeller, 2015. "Prudent debt targets and fiscal frameworks," OECD Economic Policy Papers 15, OECD Publishing.
    14. Herrera, Ana María & Rangaraju, Sandeep Kumar, 2019. "The quantitative effects of tax foresight: Not all states are equal," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 1-1.
    15. Arabinda Basistha & Casto Martin Montero Kuscevic, 2017. "The role of spatial GDP spillovers in state-level Okun’s law," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 353-360, October.
    16. Arlan Brucal & Michael J. Roberts, 2018. "Not All Regions Are Alike: Evaluating the Effect of Oil Price Shocks on Local and Aggregate Economies," Working Papers 201807, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    17. Timothy J. Goodspeed, 2022. "Coping with extreme events: On solving decentralized budgetary crises," Working Papers. Collection A: Public economics, governance and decentralization 2210, Universidade de Vigo, GEN - Governance and Economics research Network.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Local finance; Deficit financing;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H74 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Borrowing
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism
    • R23 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Regional Migration; Regional Labor Markets; Population

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