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How useful is Okun's law?

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  • Edward S. Knotek
  • II

Abstract

From the beginning of 2003 through the first quarter of 2006, real gross domestic product in the United States grew at an average annual rate of 3.4 percent. As expected, unemployment during the period fell. Over the course of the next year, average growth slowed to less than half its earlier rate--but unemployment continued to drift downward. This situation presented a puzzle for policymakers and economists, who expected the unemployment rate to increase as the economy slowed. ; Typically, growth slowdowns coincide with rising unemployment. This negative correlation between GDP growth and unemployment has been named “Okun’s law.” Part of the enduring appeal of Okun’s law is its simplicity, since it involves two important macroeconomic variables. Additionally, the relationship appears to enjoy empirical support. In reality, though, Okun’s law is a statistical relationship rather than a structural feature of the economy. As with any statistical relationship, it may be subject to revisions in an ever-changing macro economy. ; Knotek considers the usefulness of Okun’s law for policymakers and economists. The evidence suggests that Okun’s relationship between changes in the unemployment rate and output growth has varied considerably over time and over the business cycle. Nevertheless, Okun’s relationship can still be useful as a forecasting tool--provided that one takes its instability into account.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in its journal Economic Review.

Volume (Year): (2007)
Issue (Month): Q IV ()
Pages: 73-103

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedker:y:2007:i:qiv:p:73-103:n:v.92no.4

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References

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  1. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
  2. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2000. "How fast can the new economy grow?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb 25.
  3. Moosa, Imad A., 1997. "A Cross-Country Comparison of Okun's Coefficient," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 335-356, June.
  4. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "A New Keynesian Model with Unemployment," CFS Working Paper Series 2007/08, Center for Financial Studies.
  5. David Altig & Terry J. Fitzgerald & Peter Rupert, 1997. "Okun's law revisited: should we worry about low unemployment?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue May 15.
  6. Lee, Jim, 2000. "The Robustness of Okun's Law: Evidence from OECD Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 331-356, April.
  7. Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, 2003. "Okun's Law Revisited," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(4), pages 439-451, 09.
  8. Grant, Alan P., 2002. "Time-varying estimates of the natural rate of unemployment: a revisitation of Okun's law," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 95-113.
  9. Prachowny, Martin F J, 1993. "Okun's Law: Theoretical Foundations and Revised Estimates," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(2), pages 331-36, May.
  10. Todd E. Clark & Michael W. McCracken, 2007. "Forecasting with small macroeconomic VARs in the presence of instabilities," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-41, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Weber, Christian E, 1995. "Cyclical Output, Cyclical Unemployment, and Okun's Coefficient: A New Approach," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(4), pages 433-45, Oct.-Dec..
  12. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
  13. Clifford L. F. Attfield & Brian Silverstone, 1997. "Okun's Coefficient: A Comment," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 326-329, May.
  14. Peter M. Summers, 2005. "What caused the Great Moderation? : some cross-country evidence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-32.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Michael T. Owyang & Tatevik Sekhposyan, 2012. "Okun’s law over the business cycle: was the great recession all that different?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue September, pages 399-418.
  2. Bryan W. Roberts, 2009. "The Macroeconomic Impacts of the 9/11 Attack: Evidence from Real-Time Forecasting," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 15(2), pages 9.
  3. Revoredo-Giha, Cesar & Leat, Philip M.K. & Renwick, Alan W., 2012. "The relationship between output and unemployment in Scotland: A regional analysis," Working Papers 131465, Scottish Agricultural College, Land Economy Research Group.
  4. Ivan O. Kitov, 2011. "Okun's law revisited. Is there structural unemployment in developed countries?," Papers 1109.4383, arXiv.org.
  5. Jan Čadil & Tomáš Pavelka & Eva Kaňková & Jan Vorlíček, 2011. "Unemployment Cost Estimate From Public Budgets Perspective," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2011(5), pages 618-637.
  6. Reich, Michael, 2012. "The Rising Strength of Management, High Unemployment and Slow Growth: Revisiting Okun’s Law," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt8sc8s1z1, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
  7. Oliver Hutengs & Georg Stadtmann, 2012. "Age Effects in the Okun's Law within the Eurozone," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1243, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  8. Reich, Michael, 2012. "The Rising Strength of Management, High Unemployment and Slow Growth: Revisiting Okun’s Law," Institute for Research on Labor and Employment, Working Paper Series qt35g487jh, Institute of Industrial Relations, UC Berkeley.
  9. Domicián Máté, 2010. "Estimating Labour Market Performance in Twenty-Three OECD Countries, 1980-2009," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 13(38), pages 213-232, December.
  10. Ngoo Yee Ting & Loi Siew Ling, 2011. "Okun’S Law In Malaysia: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Ardl) Approach With Hodrick-Prescott (Hp) Filter," Journal of Global Business and Economics, Global Research Agency, vol. 2(1), pages 95-103, January.
  11. Daniel L. Thornton, 2012. "The dual mandate: has the Fed changed its objective?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 117-134.
  12. Jun Nie & Ethan Struby, 2011. "Would active labor market policies help combat high U.S. unemployment?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 35-69.
  13. João Sousa Andrade, 2009. "The PIGS, does the Group Exist? An empirical macroeconomic analysis based on the Okun Law," GEMF Working Papers 2009-11, GEMF - Faculdade de Economia, Universidade de Coimbra.
  14. Besso, Christophe Raoul, 2010. "Employment intensity of growth and its macroeconomics determinants," MPRA Paper 35615, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Dec 0002.
  15. Albers, Scott & Albers, Andrew L., 2011. "The Golden Mean, the Arab Spring and a 10-step analysis of American economic history," MPRA Paper 33004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  16. Steven D. Mullins, 2012. "The Unemployment Impact of the 2008 Extension of Unemployment Insurance: As High as Robert Barro Suggested?," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 9(1), pages 3-20, January.
  17. Hutengs, Oliver & Stadtmann, Georg, 2012. "Age effects in the Okun's law within the Eurozone," Discussion Papers 322, European University Viadrina Frankfurt (Oder), Department of Business Administration and Economics.
  18. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Gee Hee Hong, 2012. "The Cyclicality of Sales, Regular and Effective Prices: Business Cycle and Policy Implications," IMF Working Papers 12/207, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Islas-Camargo, Alejandro & Cortez, Willy W., 2011. "Revisiting Okun's law for Mexico: an analysis of the permanent and transitory components of unemployment and output," MPRA Paper 30026, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  20. Deepankar Basu & Duncan K. Foley, 2011. "Dynamics of Output and Employment in the U.S. Economy," Working Papers wp248, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
  21. Kakarot-Handtke, Egmont, 2011. "Increasing returns and stability," MPRA Paper 33133, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  22. Oberst, Christian & Oelgemöller, Jens, 2013. "Economic Growth and Regional Labor Market Development in German Regions: Okun’s Law in a Spatial Context," FCN Working Papers 5/2013, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).

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