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What is the new normal unemployment rate?

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  • Justin Weidner
  • John C. Williams

Abstract

Recent labor markets developments, including mismatches in the skills of workers and jobs, extended unemployment benefits, and very high rates of long-term joblessness, may be impeding the return to "normal" unemployment rates of around 5%. An examination of alternative measures of labor market conditions suggests that the "normal" unemployment rate may have risen as much as 1.7 percentage points to about 6.7%, although much of this increase is likely to prove temporary. Even with such an increase, sizable labor market slack is expected to persist for years.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal FRBSF Economic Letter.

Volume (Year): (2011)
Issue (Month): feb14 ()
Pages:

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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:y:2011:i:feb14:n:2011-05

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Keywords: Unemployment ; Labor market ; Economic conditions - United States;

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Cited by:
  1. Ryan W Herzog, 2013. "An Analysis of Okun's Law, the Natural Rate, and Voting Preferences for the 50 States," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 33(4), pages 2504-2517.
  2. John Schmitt, 2011. "Labor Market Policy in the Great Recession: Some Lessons from Denmark and Germany," CEPR Reports and Issue Briefs 2011-12, Center for Economic and Policy Research (CEPR).
  3. Athanasios Orphanides, 2012. "Commentary: the United States labor market: status quio pr a new normal?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 453-462.
  4. Waters, George A., 2013. "Quantity rationing of credit and the Phillips curve," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 68-80.
  5. John C. Williams, 2011. "Will the financial crisis have a lasting effect on unemployment?," Speech 83, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Aysun, Uluc & Bouvet, Florence & Hofler, Richard, 2014. "An alternative measure of structural unemployment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 592-603.

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