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Unemployment Flows, Participation and the Natural Rate for Turkey

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  • Gonul Sengul

    ()
    (Central Bank of Turkey)

  • Murat Tasci

    ()
    (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland)

Abstract

This paper measures flow rates into and out of unemployment for Turkey and uses these rates to estimate the unemployment rate trend, that is the level of the unemployment rate the economy converges to in the long-run. In doing so, the paper explores the role of the labor force participation in determining the trend unemployment. We find an inverse V-shaped pattern for the unemployment rate trend over time in Turkey, currently standing between 8.5 and 9 percent, with an increasing labor market turnover. We also find that allowing for an explicit role for participation changes the results substantially, reducing the “natural” rate at first, but then getting closer to the baseline over time. Finally, we show that this parsimonious model can be used for forecasting unemployment in Turkey with relative ease and accuracy.

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File URL: http://eaf.ku.edu.tr/sites/eaf.ku.edu.tr/files/erf_wp_1404.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum in its series Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers with number 1404.

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Length: 38 pages
Date of creation: Feb 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:koc:wpaper:1404

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Keywords: Risk measurement; systemic risk; connectedness; systemically important financial institutions; vector autoregression; variance decomposition;

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  1. Gordon, Robert J, 1996. "The Time-varying NAIRU and its Implications for Economic Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 1492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Michael W. Elsby & Ryan Michaels & Gary Solon, 2007. "The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment," NBER Working Papers 12853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Barbara Petrongolo & Christopher Pissarides, 2008. "The ins and outs of European unemployment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 3607, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  4. Shigeru Fujita & Garey Ramey, 2009. "The Cyclicality Of Separation And Job Finding Rates," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(2), pages 415-430, 05.
  5. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, December.
  6. Richard Rogerson, 1997. "Theory Ahead of Language in the Economics of Unemployment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 73-92, Winter.
  7. A. Hakan Kara, 2008. "Turkish Experience With Implicit Inflation Targeting," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 8(1), pages 1-16.
  8. Robert Shimer, 2012. "Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 127-148, April.
  9. Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Gonul Sengul, 2012. "Turkiye’de Emek Piyasasinin Cevrimsel Hareketinin Cinsiyet Bazinda Analizi," CBT Research Notes in Economics 1209, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  10. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1997. "The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 33-49, Winter.
  11. Murat Tasci, 2012. "The ins and outs of unemployment in the long run: unemployment flows and the natural rate," Working Paper 1224, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  12. Mortensen, Dale T & Pissarides, Christopher A, 1994. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 61(3), pages 397-415, July.
  13. Gonul Sengul, 2012. "Ins and Outs of Unemployment in Turkey," Working Papers 1210, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  14. Robert Shimer, 2005. "The Cyclical Behavior of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 25-49, March.
  15. Ozbek, Levent & Ozlale, Umit, 2005. "Employing the extended Kalman filter in measuring the output gap," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(9), pages 1611-1622, September.
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