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The Cyclicality Of Separation And Job Finding Rates

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Author Info
Shigeru Fujita
Garey Ramey
Abstract

This article uses CPS gross flow data to analyze the business cycle dynamics of separation and job finding rates and quantify their contributions to overall unemployment variability. Cyclical changes in the separation rate are negatively correlated with changes in productivity and move contemporaneously with them, whereas the job finding rate is positively correlated with and tends to lag productivity. Contemporaneous fluctuations in the separation rate explain between 40 and 50% of fluctuations in unemployment, depending on how the data are detrended. This figure becomes larger when dynamic interactions between the separation and job finding rates are considered. Copyright © (2009) by the Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

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File URL: http://www.blackwell-synergy.com/doi/abs/10.1111/j.1468-2354.2009.00535.x
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Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association in its journal International Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 50 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (05)
Pages: 415-430
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Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:50:y:2009:i:2:p:415-430

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  1. Ronald Bachmann & Peggy David, 2009. "The Importance of Two-Sided Heterogeneity for the Cyclicality of Labour Market Dynamics," Ruhr Economic Papers 0124, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Per Krusell & Toshihiko Mukoyama & Richard Rogerson & Aysegul Sahin, 2009. "A Three State Model of Worker Flows in General Equilibrium," NBER Working Papers 15251, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Costain, James & Jansen, Marcel, 2009. "Employment Fluctuations with Downward Wage Rigidity: The Role of Moral Hazard," IZA Discussion Papers 4344, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Christian Merkl & Dennis Wesselbaum, 2009. "Extensive vs. Intensive Margin in Germany and the United States: Any Differences?," Kiel Working Papers 1563, Kiel Institute for the World Economy. [Downloadable!]
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