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Turkish Experience With Implicit Inflation Targeting

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  • Ali Hakan Kara

Abstract

This paper describes the challenges faced during the implementation of implicit inflation targeting in Turkey and evaluates the transition process to full-fledged inflation targeting. Using this background, the paper draws lessons for similar countries considering inflation targeting as a monetary policy regime. We argue that, the strategy of starting inflation targeting with an “implicit” version and gradually converging to full-fledged targeting can be a viable option when certain set of conditions is not satisfied. We conjecture, however, that implementing a “light” version—namely implicit inflation targeting—does not necessarily mean that the system would be exempt from all the prerequisites. In the Turkish case, for example, institutional independence and political support seem to have been the fundamental conditions for initiating the process of inflation targeting.

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File URL: http://www.tcmb.gov.tr/research/discus/WP0603.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey in its series Working Papers with number 0603.

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Date of creation: 2006
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Handle: RePEc:tcb:wpaper:0603

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References

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  1. Nicoletta Batini & Douglas Laxton, 2006. "Under What Conditions Can Inflation Targeting Be Adopted? The Experience of Emerging Markets," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 406, Central Bank of Chile.
  2. Olivier Blanchard, 2004. "Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting: Lessons from Brazil," NBER Working Papers 10389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Olcay Yucel Emir & Fatih Ozatay & Gulbin Sahinbeyoglu, 2005. "Effects of US Interest Rates and News on the Daily Interest Rates of a Highly Indebted Emerging Country : Evidence from Turkey," Working Papers 0508, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  4. Fatih Ozatay, 2005. "Monetary Policy Challenges for Turkey in European Union Accession Process," Working Papers 0511, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  5. Gaston Gelos & Alessandro Prati & Oya Celasun, 2004. "Obstacles to Disinflation: What is the Role of Fiscal Expectations?," IMF Working Papers 04/111, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Zelal Aktas & Neslihan Kaya & Umit Ozlale, 2005. "The Price Puzzle in Emerging Markets : Evidence from the Turkish Economy Using Model Based Risk Premium Derived from Domestic Fundamentals," Working Papers 0502, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2003. "Addicted to Dollars," NBER Working Papers 10015, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Cem Cebi, 2011. "The Interaction between Monetary and Fiscal Policies in Turkey: An Estimated New Keynesian DSGE Model (Yeni Keynesyen Dinamik Stokastik Genel Denge Modeli Çerçevesinde Türkiye’de Para ve Maliye P," Working Papers 1104, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  2. Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2011. "Monetary policy and credit cards: Evidence from a small open economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 201-210, January.
  3. Alper, Emre & Hatipoglu, Ozan, 2009. "The Conduct of Monetary Policy in Turkey in the Pre- and Post-crisis Period of 2001 in Comparative Perspective: a Case for Central Bank Independence," MPRA Paper 18426, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Akyurek, Cem & Kutan, Ali M. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2011. "Can inflation targeting regimes be effective in developing countries? The Turkish experience," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 343-355, October.
  5. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "A Simple DGE Model for Inflation Targeting," IMF Working Papers 07/197, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Selva Demiralp & Hakan Kara & Pinar Ozlu, 2011. "Monetary Policy Communication Under Inflation Targeting : Do Words Speak Louder Than Actions?," Working Papers 1118, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  7. Harun Alp & Yusuf Soner Baskaya & Mustafa Kilinc & Canan Yuksel, 2012. "Stylized Facts for Business Cycles in Turkey," Working Papers 1202, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
  8. Levent, Korap, 2009. "Parasal büyüme ve tüketici enflasyonu değişim oranı arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi üzerine bir deneme: Türkiye örneği
    [An essay upon the causality relationship between the monetary gro    ," MPRA Paper 19537, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Zeren, Fatma & Korap, Levent, 2010. "A cost-based empirical model of the aggregate price determination for the Turkish economy: a multivariate cointegration approach," MPRA Paper 23655, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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